9 Results for:

February 21, 2017

Territorial Disputes
Renewed Conflict Over Nagorno-Karabakh

The likelihood that Armenians and Azerbaijanis will clash over Nagorno-Karabakh in the next twelve months is high. The situation remains tense following fierce fighting in April 2016 that marked the worst bloodshed since the 1994 cease-fire that established the current territorial division.

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March 17, 2016

Georgia
Renewed Confrontation in Georgia

Introduction Although the likelihood of a full-blown war between Russia and Georgia is low, one cannot rule out renewed confrontation between the two countries in the next twelve to eighteen month…

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November 18, 2015

Territorial Disputes
Armed Confrontation Between China and India

Introduction The China-India relationship is remarkably stable in many ways. Bilateral summits and new multilateral groupings often bring the two Asian giants together in common cause. Both sides …

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May 14, 2015

Cybersecurity
Strategic Risks of Ambiguity in Cyberspace

Introduction As major powers increasingly rely on digital networks for critical services, the number of plausible network attacks, accidents, or failures that could trigger or exacerbate an intern…

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January 9, 2013

Kenya
Electoral Violence in Kenya

Introduction Kenya is at risk of repeating the violence that marred its 2007 presidential election, during which 1,133 died and nearly 600,000 were displaced from their homes. Political order in K…

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September 6, 2012

Venezuela
Political Unrest in Venezuela

In March 2015, the author wrote an update to this memo to reflect recent developments in Venezuela. Read the update. Introduction In the coming months, Venezuela could experience significant po…

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August 9, 2012

Iraq
Renewed Violence in Iraq

Introduction Iraq remains a fragile state deeply traumatized and riven by thirty years of war, sanctions, occupation, and civil strife. Although there are numerous positive signs of progress in Ir…

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April 11, 2012

South China Sea
Armed Clash in the South China Sea

In April 2015, the author wrote an update to this memo to reflect recent developments in the South China Sea. Read the update. Introduction The risk of conflict in the South China Sea is signif…

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September 21, 2010

Nigeria
Electoral Violence in Nigeria

Overview In February 2015, the author wrote an update to this memo to reflect recent developments in Nigeria. Read the update. Elections in Nigeria scheduled for January 2011 may well be the fi…

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