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December 30, 2005

Economics
Things I got wrong in 2005

Alas, this list is rather long.   There is a reason why Mike Dooley ended the first segment of our Econoblog debate by noting that he had been right (and I and other worry warts had been wrong) for 2…

February 10, 2006

United States
Big, and getting bigger. The 2005 trade and current account deficit

$65.7b in December$198.2 b for the fourth quarter$725.8 b for the year.Big numbers, all.The roughly $200b fourth quarter trade deficit was about as big as the $200 b quarterly current account deficit…

June 29, 2006

Emerging Markets
Levered long/ long funds …

An anonymous partner at a mid-sized London hedge fund expressed something I was trying to say a couple of weeks ago fair better than I could have.   From the Financial Times: "A lot of managers…

December 11, 2006

Financial Markets
The GCC’s dollar peg …

China will have a current account surplus of over $200b this year.  China has about 1.3 billion people.   The GCC countries (Saudi Arabia and the small states on the Gulf) will also have a current ac…

March 21, 2007

Financial Markets
The dollar is no longer a high carry currency …

That at least is what the market seems to think.  The carry trade has bounced back. The Australian dollar -- a high carry currency -- is setting new highs (v. the US dollar at least).  The kiwi has r…

March 25, 2007

Monetary Policy
Still going strong (Bretton Woods 2)

I watch the data on global reserve growth rather closely.  But I was still surprised to see (via Global Liquidity Blog) the scale of the growth in the Fed's custodial holdings so far in the first…

July 26, 2007

Economics
It is now (almost) official: q1 dollar reserve growth exceeded the US current account deficit …

The BIS reported data on central banks’ accumulation of dollars in the international banking system today (Table 5c).    Central banks added $24.5b to their dollar holdings – but also repaid $53.5b i…

January 18, 2008

Monetary Policy
The new (financial) world order

In 2007: China’s government added $430b to its foreign exchange reserves. Russia’s government added $150b to its foreign exchange reserves. China’s state banks likely - this is the only…

February 2, 2009

Emerging Markets
It wasn’t just the market ...

James Saft of Reuters worries that the crisis will lead to a shift away from the "Davos consensus," especially as the market’s power had pulled so many out of poverty. "the stuff underlying the Da…

February 17, 2009

Capital Flows
How Worried Should We Be About Dubai?

Note: This post is by Rachel Ziemba of RGE Monitor, filling in while Brad is off in the mountains. Many thanks to Brad for letting me fill in again.  I pay attention to macro events in China and sev…

Liabilities of BIS banks to UAE