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January 27, 2006

United States
Imports surge, GDP and exports don’t …

The market thinks that the (bad) q4 GDP number is old news; the economy is looking far better in q1.   The market is also banking on stronger export growth to help support US growth in 2006.  See Jus…

December 22, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
Memo to John Snow: Do housing bubbles count?

John Snow's latte-drinking budget mythmaking has gotten plenty of (fully warranted) criticism already, but I'll still pile on. Snow argues that the large budget surplus at the tail end of the…

March 22, 2006

United States
Not priced in

David Bassanese recently wrote in the Australian Financial review: "Provided inflation remains benign, the goods news is that the US economy does not appear to be facing many downside risks, and its …

October 19, 2006

Defense Technology
War Made New

A sweeping, epic history that ranges from the defeat of the Spanish Armada to the war on terrorism, War Made New is a provocative new vision of the rise of the modern world through the lens of warfar…

January 7, 2007

Monetary Policy
Dollar and euros — not dollars or euros. And more dollars than euros in 2006

I have every incentive in the world to find evidence that central banks have diversified away from the dollar.   I like being right as much as the next guy.   Back in early 2005, Nouriel and I -- bui…


June 6, 2007

Palestinian Territories
From Gaza to Beirut and Tehran: A Conversation with Sallai M. Meridor

Join us for an in-depth discussion with Israel's Ambassador to the United States Sallai Meridor about recent developments in the Middle East--including Iran's continued pursuit of nuclear capabilitie…


August 17, 2007

Financial Markets
Conduits, SIVs, cash-hoarding, commercial paper restructuring and such

Yves Smith of Naked Capitalism is right – If Gillian Tett of the FT disappeared, we would be in a whole lot of trouble. I wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of central bankers rely on her reporting to…

October 23, 2007

Emerging Markets
Emerging economies accomplish something beyond the reach of the G-7

The FT notes, in today’s leader, that the G-7 hasn’t been able to agree on the massive, co-ordinated intervention needed up hold the dollar up against the euro. The euro, and commodity currencies suc…

September 7, 2007

Is China selling its Treasuries?

Combine two data points The August fall in Treasury holdings in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s custodial accounts (the data is released weekly here); andThe very modest increase in China’s re…

October 9, 2007

Financial Markets
Outsourced (the United States’ strong dollar policy)

Alan Ruskin of RBS Greenwich capital makes an important point in the Financial Times.  The US has effectively outsourced its strong dollar policy to the emerging world.    It isn't even clear tha…