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December 19, 2004

Plaza, or Louvre?

The 1985 Plaza accord sought to drive the dollar down; the 1987 Louvre sought to keep the dollar from falling further. There is growing talk of a new Plaza in the US -- though not in the circles tha…

February 24, 2005

Monetary Policy
An Asian OPEC?

A less kind headline might be "Asian policy makers meet, agree to continue manipulating foreign exchange markets" Still, this Bloomberg article (link thanks to Calculated Risk) suggests that there ma…

September 22, 2005

Monetary Policy
Where are the world’s reserves going?

In my post "has the US outsourced creative thinking about external adjustment to France," I noted that purchases of Treasuries by central banks have fallen off - even though global reserve accumulati…

Where are the world’s reserves going?

August 16, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
Well, the 2005 fiscal deficit looks good …

I'll leave it to others (Brookings, Goldman, CBPP, DeLong with some help from Concord Coalition) to transform the CBO forecast into realistic projections.  Manipulating the CBO long-term budget f…

January 3, 2006

United States
Tyler Cowen take note - dollar pessimism may no longer be fully “priced” in

Tyler Cowen has argued that big shocks come when markets are surprised, and, right now, no one would be surprised by a dollar decline.  People like me (and others with a wee bit higher profile) have …

February 22, 2006

United States
Shrinking dark matter watch

Or maybe shifting dark matter watch. Via Barry Ritholtz comes news that increasing US investment (according to Mandel) in one key intangible asset - US brands - may be yielding diminishing returns.  …

July 15, 2006

Capital Flows
A new club of creditors …

Andrew Rozanov – a senior manager in the official institutions group of State Street Global Advisors – thinks America’s creditors in Asia and the oil producing world should create a club (sort of lik…

January 27, 2006

United States
Imports surge, GDP and exports don’t …

The market thinks that the (bad) q4 GDP number is old news; the economy is looking far better in q1.   The market is also banking on stronger export growth to help support US growth in 2006.  See Jus…

March 22, 2006

United States
Not priced in

David Bassanese recently wrote in the Australian Financial review: "Provided inflation remains benign, the goods news is that the US economy does not appear to be facing many downside risks, and its …

December 22, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
Memo to John Snow: Do housing bubbles count?

John Snow's latte-drinking budget mythmaking has gotten plenty of (fully warranted) criticism already, but I'll still pile on. Snow argues that the large budget surplus at the tail end of the…