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March 22, 2005

Financial Markets
The $1.3 billion question: What will happen to the renminbi

A week in China certainly does not make me an expert. Like many, I see China through the filter of English-speaking Chinese economists, and, to more precise, through the filter of those economists a…

July 11, 2005

China
China posts a $9.7 (call it 10) billion trade surplus in June

The $10 billion monthly surplus in June puts China on track for an annual trade surplus of $100 billion or more.The data brought China’s trade surplus for the first half of the year to $39.65bn, alre…

July 18, 2005

United States
The May TIC data

Sorry about the unimaginative headline.I guess the TIC data was sort of blah. Net inflows were not as strong as in January or February, nor as weak as in March and April.One thing I don’t understand…

August 9, 2005

Economics
The biggest surprise of 2005?

At least for me, it is the limited impact of $60 a barrel oil on the US economy.  US growth looks poised to reaccelerate in q3, even in the face of what by now is a substantial increase in oil prices…

August 11, 2005

China
China’s economy in 2005 is not what it was in 2000

China always has depended on export-led growth.   It is a core reason why China has been so successful.  China is just trying to hold on to the core of its success in the face of political pressure f…

Exports to GDP