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August 9, 2005

Economics
The biggest surprise of 2005?

At least for me, it is the limited impact of $60 a barrel oil on the US economy.  US growth looks poised to reaccelerate in q3, even in the face of what by now is a substantial increase in oil prices…

October 6, 2005

China
How many divisions does the IMF have?

So asks Andy Mukherjee of Bloomberg.  He wonders if IMF efforts to get China to allow its exchange rate to appreciate significantly would have exactly as much impact over Chinese policy as IMF effo…

January 6, 2006

United States
The USA, China and Saudi Arabia - the big three of global adjustment?

The standard discussion of the unbalanced world divies the world up into three: the US, Europe and Japan/ Asia.   And the standard discussion of global imbalances says all three need to do their part…

September 20, 2005

Emerging Markets
Is the IMF heading toward irrelevance because of a revival in private capital flows?

My answer is no. If the IMF is irrelevant (I don't think it is), it is not because private capital inflows to emerging markets have rebounded to pre-crisis (i.e. 1996/97) levels.  It is because e…

January 26, 2006

China
The intent is good …

The Governor of the China's Central Bank said pretty much all the right things at Davos - at least from my point of view.    China does need to base its growth far more on domestic consumption.  …

April 30, 2006

Can the dollar block survive another bout of dollar weakness?

In case you haven't noticed, the dollar is now closer to 1.30 (v. the euro) than 1.20 - or even 1.15.  Carry is no longer king.   There is talk of a "regime change" in the fx market.  Or at least…

March 14, 2006

United States
The 2005 (and 2006) current account deficit

The 2005 current account deficit: $805 billion. or 6.4% of US GDP That is a bit smaller than I expected.    The q3 deficit was revised down.  Reinsurance payments were higher than initially foreca…

April 4, 2006

United States
Bill Gross, no longer the bond king …

Bill Gross of PIMCO certainly seems to think foreign central banks matter - despite the arguments from some in the Fed (and the Treasury).Foreign central banks made famous and in fact prosperous by t…

October 5, 2006

Economics
A world turned upside down …

I guess it is only natural that in world where capital flows – in unprecedented sums – from the poor to the rich, that the poor countries on the periphery also have lower inflation rates than the US…

November 8, 2006

China
Absence of global rebalancing watch - first q4 data point from China edition

I spent last night following the outcome of the US election.   It looks like a majority of US electorate tired of Bush Administrations policies (and Rummy) before the rest of the world tired of finan…

chinatrade1