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March 4, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
Undisputed Unaffordability

That is a phrase from the Washington Post’s oped on Social Security.I think it goes a bit too far, so I want to dispute the "undisputed unaffordability" of Social Security.I do not dispute that there…

March 8, 2005

United States
The sharecropper society

I suspect Warren Buffet would agree with Bill Gross.There is one easy way to make it easier for the US to deal with its own aging population: Stop promising so much of our future income to support th…

April 5, 2005

Emerging Markets
How private investment in China (and other emerging economies) ends up financing the USA

The best thing the Institute of International Finance does is put together data on private capital flows to emerging economies.They just released their estimates for net private flows to the set of e…

March 31, 2005

Emerging Markets
What happened to Argentine banks in 2001? And why?

I suspect most people who read this blog are interested in the dollar, US interest rates, the trade balance, the "hard v. soft landing debate" (outsourced today to Kash at the Angry Bear), oil, even …

June 22, 2005

Capital Flows
The joys of being a creditor nation

China is on track to add between $250 and $300 billion to its reserves this year. That is a lot of money. Enough to have an impact on global bond markets. Enough to buy several oil companies. As…

April 11, 2005

United States
Skating on incredibly thin ice

Altogether, the circumstances seem to be as dangerous and intractable as any I can remember, and I can remember quite a lot. What really concerns me is that there seems to be so little willingness o…

October 12, 2005

China
China’s trade surplus dipped in September

China's monthly surplus was over $10 billion in August, and "only" $7.5 billion or so in September. The pace of export growth dipped a bit in September (v. August), while import growth stayed at …

February 1, 2005

Economics
If a Kansan is going to run the World Bank

Please pick Kassebaum-Baker rather than Brownback. Kassebaum is sort of like the Christine Todd Whitman of Kansas politics; Brownback is more the Rick Santorum. I suspect that Brownback won’t get t…

February 11, 2006

United States
Cantankerous commentary on trade deficit commentary

I must have rolled out off the wrong side of the bed.   A few things about the commentary on the record 2005 trade deficit have been bothering me.  Above all, the argument that the US trade deficit i…

March 26, 2006

Monetary Policy
Summers on reserves, exchange rates, the international financial architecture and other big topics close to my heart

Larry Summers has always believed that capital should flow from the already rich and aging societies that constitute the current core of the world economy to the poor and young countries on the perip…