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January 26, 2020

Economics
Leprechaun Adjusted Euro Area GDP…

The entire euro area's economic statistics now need to be adjusted to remove the distortions created by the tax transactions of large multinationals operating in Ireland and the Netherlands. Headline…

Leprechaun Adjusted Euro Area GDP…

January 17, 2020

Puerto Rico
Puerto Rico: A U.S. Territory in Crisis

The Caribbean island, which shares a close yet fraught relationship with the rest of the United States, faces a multilayered economic and social crisis, rooted in long-standing policy and compounded …

A man rides his bicycle through a damaged road in Puerto Rico.

January 14, 2020

Taiwan
All Sound and No Fury? Will The Trump Administration Get Tough on Currency in April?

A number of Asian countries could be designated as manipulators in the U.S. Treasury's April foreign exchange report. And unlike the politically motivated designation of China last summer, there woul…

All Sound and No Fury? Will The Trump Administration Get Tough on Currency in April?

January 6, 2020

China
More Trade Destruction than Trade Diversion Right Now

Earlier in the year, there was a plausible argument that Trump's tariffs were mostly just diverting U.S. demand to other markets. But in recent months imports from China and imports from the United S…

More Trade Destruction than Trade  Diversion Right Now

December 20, 2019

Economics
Am Taking a Few Days Off. Back in 2020 ...

Happy Holidays, and if it fits, Merry Christmas.   Photo is of a Schwarzwälderkirschtorte.*  It tastes as good as it looks.  My brother is an excellent chef. * Blackforest cake, with the…

black forest cake

December 17, 2019

United States
It is Time to Change How We View Foreign Direct Investment

FDI is increasingly driven by tax avoidance.

It is Time to Change How We View Foreign Direct Investment

December 10, 2019

Education
Foreign Money in U.S. Universities: Implications for Academic Freedom and National Security

Speakers discuss the power yielded by foreign governments through large donations to U.S. universities, the proliferation of government-funded Confucius Institutes on campuses, and the potential thre…

Play Foreign Money in U.S. Universities: Implications for Academic Freedom and National Security

December 10, 2019

China
China, More Than Trump, Has Been Driving the Slowdown in Global Trade

U.S. imports from China are down. China's imports from everyone are down.

Chinese Import Growth Relative to Chinese GDP Growth

December 3, 2019

Asia
Asia Still Lags When It Comes to FX Market Transparency...

Quarterly disclosure with a quarter lag doesn't add much to the numbers already provided in the balance of payments (especially if it isn't clear what is being disclosed). Semi-annual disclosure prov…

Asia Still Lags When It Comes to FX Market Transparency...

November 19, 2019

United States
Trump’s Sisyphean Task: Bringing Down the U.S. Trade Deficit Without A Fall in the Dollar

Stalled export growth is more a function of the strong dollar than of Trump's trade wars. U.S. non-petrol exports haven't grown over the last five years.

Trump’s Sisyphean Task: Bringing Down the U.S. Trade Deficit Without A Fall in the Dollar