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September 6, 2019

Zimbabwe
Good Riddance to Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe

During his thirty-seven years in power in Zimbabwe, he committed virtually every human rights violation there is. His hands were awash in the blood of Zimbabweans. Fanning and exploiting racial and class differences, he destroyed the country’s economy, once on the cusp of being one of Africa’s most developed, driving out commercial white farmers. By the time he died, Zimbabwe was an international pariah, an economic basket case, and many or most of the country’s most educated and productive citizens had left the country.

Robert Mugabe stands in front of a blurred out, saluting soldier.

December 5, 2019

Ukraine
Can the Paris Summit End Ukraine’s War?

The summit will feature the highest-profile talks in years on the war between Ukraine and Russia-backed separatists, but the parties will have to bridge major divides to find a permanent end to the c…

December 10, 2019

China
China, More Than Trump, Has Been Driving the Slowdown in Global Trade

U.S. imports from China are down. China's imports from everyone are down.

Chinese Import Growth Relative to Chinese GDP Growth

October 15, 2019

Taiwan
What Does Taiwan’s Hidden Forward Book Mean for Taiwan’s Financial Stability and U.S. Currency Policy?

Taiwan's central bank—and Taiwanese households—have taken on an awful lot of foreign currency risk over the years …

treasury fx intervention taiwan 4

October 9, 2019

Taiwan
$130+ Billion in Undisclosed Foreign Exchange Intervention by Taiwan's Central Bank

Based on the profits and losses disclosed by Taiwan’s central bank, it appears that its true FX exposures exceed its disclosed foreign exchange reserves by USD 130bn, and perhaps by as much as USD 20…

fig 19

July 14, 2006

United States
Far be it from me to disagree with Robert Rubin

One thing I never thought I would see: William Greider  (no fan of Citibank Democrats) interviewing Robert Rubin.    The end result is well worth reading.  Rubin doesn’t seem to be in Steve Roach’s…

October 8, 2019

Taiwan
Could Taiwan’s Commercial Banks Cover the Lifers' Hedging Need? (Part 4)

Who is on the other side of the massive ($250 billion) hedging need of Taiwan's life insurance industry? The local banking system covers at most a quarter of the life insurers hedging need, and forei…

fig 3

October 4, 2019

Taiwan
Shadow FX Intervention in Taiwan: Solving a 100+ billion dollar enigma (Part 3)

This is the third post in a series* on Taiwan's life insurers and their private & sovereign FX hedging counterparties. It’s the product of a collaboration with S.T.W**, a market participant and frien…

Shadow FX Intervention in Taiwan: Solving a 100+ billion dollar enigma (Part 3)

October 4, 2019

Taiwan
Shadow FX Intervention in Taiwan: Solving a 100+ billion dollar enigma (Part 2)

Large-scale purchases of foreign bonds have become the central flow sustaining Taiwan’s massive current account surplus and keeping the Taiwan dollar weak. The size of this flow raises the question o…

Shadow FX Intervention in Taiwan: Solving a 100+ billion dollar enigma (Part 2)

December 3, 2019

Asia
Asia Still Lags When It Comes to FX Market Transparency...

Quarterly disclosure with a quarter lag doesn't add much to the numbers already provided in the balance of payments (especially if it isn't clear what is being disclosed). Semi-annual disclosure prov…

Asia Still Lags When It Comes to FX Market Transparency...