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July 16, 2019

Ireland
Finding Ireland in the U.S. Balance of Payments Data ...

Turns out a small and very green island dominates financial flows from "other euro area countries."  Ireland's impact, of course, is a case study in the role that "trade-in-tax" plays in driving g…

Finding Ireland in the U.S. Balance of Payments Data ...

July 30, 2019

United States
Election 2020: Jay Inslee, Democratic Presidential Candidate

The two dozen candidates competing for the Democratic presidential nomination are all hoping to get to Washington. But so far no U.S. president has come from Washington. Governor Jay Inslee hopes to …

Jay Inslee

July 3, 2019

United States
The Trump Tax Reform, As Seen in the U.S. Balance of Payments Data

The international side of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was a real reform, not just a straight-forward cut in the rate. It ended deferral, and shifted to a (mostly) territorial tax system. Yet, judging f…

The Trump Tax Reform, As Seen in the U.S. Balance of Payments Data

July 1, 2019

China
China’s Bizarre May Intervention Numbers

With the Osaka Xi-Trump summit producing an indefinite "truce" that halts further escalation (at least for now), there is every reason to expect the yuan to remain stable. The intervention proxies (s…

China’s Bizarre May Intervention Numbers

June 25, 2019

China
President Xi, Still the Deglobalizer in Chief…

Can China generate new friends by strategically opening its markets while…also importing less? (Don't judge China just by changes in its tariffs, the Chinese state has many other policy tools to l…

President Xi, Still the Deglobalizer in Chief…

July 17, 2019

North Korea
Can North Korea Be Deterred?

The United States’ deterrence record is spotty vis-à-vis North Korea, and a judgement of its success or failure hinges on how the behaviors or actions targeted by deterrence are defined. 

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July 15, 2019

Cybersecurity
New Cyber Brief: Securing 5G Networks: Challenges and Recommendations

5G networks could revolutionize the digital economy, but with this opportunity come major cybersecurity challenges. A new Council on Foreign Relations Cyber Brief provides recommendations for policym…

A woman walks past a billboard reading '5G is here' on day one of the Mobile World Congress (MWC) Shanghai 2019 at the Shanghai New International Expo Center on June 26, 2019 in Shanghai, China.

June 17, 2019

International Economic Policy
Three Recommended Changes to U.S. Currency Policy

I have a new Policy Innovation Memo that recommends three changes to U.S. currency policy, and specifically, three changes to the U.S. Treasury’s Foreign Exchange report: 1. The Foreign Currency r…

Passers-by are reflected on a signboard displaying currency signs outside a bank in Tokyo November 27, 2014. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo

June 14, 2019

China
A Tale of Two Tariffs: China’s So Far Ineffective Tariffs on U.S. Manufacturing Exports

China's tariffs on U.S. commodities? A huge impact. Especially on bilateral trade. But also on global U.S. exports of soybeans. China's tariffs on U.S. manufactures? By comparison, a relative mode…

A Tale of Two Tariffs: China’s So Far Ineffective Tariffs on U.S. Manufacturing Exports

June 12, 2019

China
Did Huawei’s Chip Stockpiling Bring China’s 2018 Trade Surplus Down?

China's 2018 trade surplus fell by a bit more than I would have expected, and it wasn't all because of higher commodity imports. Imports of manufactures were strong relative to export growth. Could t…

Did Huawei’s Chip Stockpiling Bring China’s 2018 Trade Surplus Down?