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August 20, 2019

Energy and Climate Policy
Electricity as Coercion: Is There a Risk of Strategic Denial of Service?

This guest post is co-authored by Joshua Busby, associate professor of public affairs at the Robert S. Strauss Center for International Security and Law at the LBJ School at the University of Texas a…

Electricity pylons are seen in London, Britain August 1, 2017.

August 13, 2019

China
The IMF's (New) China Problem

If China ever followed the IMF’s fiscal advice, it would go back to running large trade surpluses—and its exchange rate would be undervalued again in the IMF's models. 

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde speaks with Chinese President Xi Jinping (R) during their meeting at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China , April 24, 2019. (Parker Song/Pool via REUTERS)

August 13, 2019

China
When it Comes to Exporting (Manufactures), Europe is Now the One from Mars

Manufacturing exports are about three times more important to the euro area than to the U.S. economy. That's largely because the U.S. now exports very few manuactures. And China's imports of ma…

When it Comes to Exporting (Manufactures), Europe is Now the One from Mars

August 13, 2019

China
On Designating China as a Currency Manipulator…

China really did manipulate its currency before the global crisis.  It really doesn't do so now.   But how China's manages its currency still matters for the global economy.

On Designating China as a Currency Manipulator…

August 13, 2019

United States
Election 2020: Beto O’Rourke, Democratic Presidential Candidate

When Richard Nixon lost California’s governor’s race in 1962, political pundits declared his dream of becoming president dead. After all, winning presidential candidates usually come off of electoral…

Beto O’Rourke

August 12, 2019

United States
$500 Billion in Dividends out of the Double Irish with a Dutch twist (with a bit of Help from Bermuda)

Tax is often the biggest factor in the balance of payments. U.S. firms operating in Bermuda paid $229 billion in dividends back to their U.S. parents in 2018. That’s more than the United States earne…

$500 Billion in Dividends out of the Double Irish with a Dutch twist (with a bit of Help from Bermuda)

July 30, 2019

United States
Election 2020: Jay Inslee, Democratic Presidential Candidate

The two dozen candidates competing for the Democratic presidential nomination are all hoping to get to Washington. But so far no U.S. president has come from Washington. Governor Jay Inslee hopes to …

Jay Inslee

July 30, 2019

Economics
Summer Holiday

I am taking a few days off— If you are desperate for analysis of China’s balance of payments, I would recommend my disaggregation of China’s current account adjustment last year—and my analysis of…

July 24, 2019

International Economic Policy
The IMF (Still) Cannot Quit Fiscal Consolidation…

The IMF's country-level fiscal advice has an adding up problem. The IMF (over time) wants most countries to match the euro zone and head toward fiscal balance. That though would leave the world short…

A woman walks past the International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo at its headquarters in Washington, U.S., May 10, 2018. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas

July 18, 2019

China
The Continuing Chinese Drag on the Global Economy

Trump's trade policies aren't the only reason for the slowdown in global trade …

The Continuing Chinese Drag on the Global Economy