2,981 Results for:

November 19, 2019

United States
Trump’s Sisyphean Task: Bringing Down the U.S. Trade Deficit Without A Fall in the Dollar

Stalled export growth is more a function of the strong dollar than of Trump's trade wars. U.S. non-petrol exports haven't grown over the last five years.

Trump’s Sisyphean Task: Bringing Down the U.S. Trade Deficit Without A Fall in the Dollar

November 13, 2019

United States
A Big Borrower and a Giant Corporate Tax Dodge? How Best to Describe the U.S. External Balance Sheet

Most grandiose explanations for the United States' persistent surplus in the income balance of the U.S. current account miss the mark. The U.S. debt position tracks the sum of past current account de…

A Big Borrower and a Giant Corporate Tax Dodge? How Best to Describe the U.S. External Balance Sheet

November 6, 2019

Election 2020
The President’s Inbox: Should the United States Do Less Overseas?

The latest episode of The President’s Inbox is now live. The Iowa caucuses, the formal start of the presidential nominating process, are just three months away. Given that elections matter for U.S. f…

An American flag flies on the edge of the Atlantic ocean.

November 1, 2019

Ireland
Ireland’s Statistical Cry for Help…

Ireland's tax authorities have made the job of Ireland's statistical authorities almost impossible.   The distortions in the Irish data are now so big that the impact the data for the entire euro are…

Ireland’s Statistical Cry for Help…

October 29, 2019

Taiwan
Looking for the Mysterious Hedging Counterparty of Taiwan's Lifers

This gathers the six post series I did with Concentrated Ambiguity into a single easy accessible post.

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October 24, 2019

Japan
A Puzzle in Japan’s Balance of Payments: What Explains Strong Foreign Demand for JGBs?

Japanese investors have an obvious incentive to search for yield abroad. But why has foreign demand for Japanese bonds almost matched Japanese demand for foreign bonds?

A Puzzle in Japan’s Balance of Payments: What Explains Strong Foreign Demand for JGBs?

October 17, 2019

Taiwan
What Might Be in Treasury's October 2019 Foreign Exchange Report?

The Fall 2019 Treasury Foreign Exchange Report should send a strong warning to Thailand, Taiwan, and Singapore that their current pattern of intervention in the market would put them at risk of futur…

What Might Be in Treasury's October 2019 Foreign Exchange Report?

October 16, 2019

Cybersecurity
New Cyber Brief: Expanding Disclosure Policy to Drive Better Cybersecurity

Threats to national and economic security emanating from cyberspace are all too real, but public disclosure of these incidents is exceedingly rare. A new Council on Foreign Relations Cyber Brief prov…

U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York Geoffrey Berman (2nd L) speaks as (L-R) FBI Director Christopher Wray, U.S. Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein and Assistant Attorney General for National Security John Demers listen during a news conference to announce a China related national security law enforcement action December 20, 2018 at The Justice Department in Washington, DC. The Justice Department has filed charges against two Chinese national individuals, Zhu Hua and Zhang Shilong who bel

October 15, 2019

Taiwan
What Does Taiwan’s Hidden Forward Book Mean for Taiwan’s Financial Stability and U.S. Currency Policy?

Taiwan's central bank—and Taiwanese households—have taken on an awful lot of foreign currency risk over the years …

treasury fx intervention taiwan 4

October 9, 2019

Taiwan
$130+ Billion in Undisclosed Foreign Exchange Intervention by Taiwan's Central Bank

Based on the profits and losses disclosed by Taiwan’s central bank, it appears that its true FX exposures exceed its disclosed foreign exchange reserves by USD 130bn, and perhaps by as much as USD 20…

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