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February 1, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
Show me, do not tell me

Apparently, W plans to tell the world he is now serious about fiscal discipline. Expect the need to control both short-term and long-term deficits to be a big theme in tonight’s State of the Union a…

May 27, 2005

United States
Bretton Woods Two and Trade Politics

The interest rate on the 10 year Treasury note is somewhere between 4.0-4.1% -- and the US seems to be having no trouble financing its current account (or its budget) deficit right now. The risk of…

August 3, 2005

Monetary Policy
Are US companies to Bretton Woods 2 …

What gold was to Bretton Woods 1?In the post war Bretton Woods system, the dollar was - at least in principle - fully convertible into gold at a fixed rate.   In practice, after a certain point in th…

August 19, 2005

Capital Flows
Iraq: What happened to US plans for an extreme makeover of the economy?

I agree with Mark Thoma more often than naught.   I certainly share his concern about the shifting sectoral composition of output (translated from economese to English, more jobs in housing), and, li…

February 13, 2006

Monetary Policy
It is back. Bretton Woods 2 (central bank financing of the US)

Some would say it never really went away.Emerging market economies did not stop accumulating reserves in 2005.  Best I can tell, adjusting for valuation effects and including all the foreign assets o…

August 16, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
Well, the 2005 fiscal deficit looks good …

I'll leave it to others (Brookings, Goldman, CBPP, DeLong with some help from Concord Coalition) to transform the CBO forecast into realistic projections.  Manipulating the CBO long-term budget f…

August 25, 2005

Capital Flows
Peter Galbraith and Iraq

I think the folks over at TPM Café are right: David Brooks' latest New York Times column is a real flip-flop.  He has gone from celebrating the United States firm commitment to universal democrat…

April 28, 2006

Why does China have a looser monetary policy than the United States?

We know why the global economy grew strongly in the first quarter.   Nothing changed.  Or rather, the basic pattern that has driven global growth for the past few years intensified.The US continued t…

September 7, 2006

China
Tyler Cowen apparently did not read my China testimony! The RMB’s value does influence trade flows

The New York Times’ conservative columnists certainly know how to get my blood boiling.  David Brooks, among other things, apparently thinks the key to a hedge fund salary is good people skills – not…

September 17, 2006

Economics
Too much to read …

I really liked Krishna Guha’s analysis of global imbalances that appeared in Wednesday’s FT.    His emphasis on the role of exchange rate adjustment in global rebalancing seemed right to me.  Exchang…