29 Results for:

August 22, 2016

Brexit
Global Economics Monthly: August 2016

Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn argues that markets have absorbed the initial economic shock from Brexit, but navigating the new landscape will remain a challenge. Two months after the vote, the politics of Brexit is producing a lengthy and uncertain renegotiation of Britain’s place in Europe and the world. Such extended uncertainty is likely to produce a long-lasting drag on both UK and European economies, which could ultimately threaten the viability of the European Union (EU).

October 16, 2018

Cybersecurity
Disinformation on Steroids

Deep fakes—highly realistic and difficult-to-detect depictions of real people doing or saying things they never said or did—are a profoundly serious problem for democratic governments and the world order. A combination of technology, education, and public policy can reduce their effectiveness.

August 5, 2015

Economics
Global Economics Monthly: August 2015

Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn argues that China’s request to include its currency, the renminbi (RMB), in an International Monetary Fund (IMF) currency basket, known as special drawing right (SDR), is political as much as economic in intent and effect. The inclusion would signal a milestone in China’s transition to a less-regulated economy.

August 5, 2013

China
Global Economics Monthly: August 2013

Bottom Line: Growth is slowing in China, which could constrain the pace of rebalancing and policy reform. China's long-term growth could disappoint markets. If you are an English football fan, you…

October 20, 2016

Thailand
A New Approach to Thailand's Insurgency

Southern Thailand has faced a brutal insurgency since 2001. Today, there is a chance the insurgency will be infiltrated by ISIS, which has recruited over one thousand Southeast Asians.

September 12, 2016

Group of 20 (G20)
Global Economics Monthly: September 2016

Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn argues that at the Group of Twenty (G20) Summit in Hangzhou, China, leaders called for governments to do more to support growth, but offered little in the way of new measures. Quietly, and away from the G20 spotlight, fiscal policy is becoming more expansionary, but current policies are unlikely to provide a meaningful boost to growth or soothe rising populist pressures.

July 18, 2016

Russia
Global Economics Monthly: July 2016

Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn argues that summer has seemingly brought a new optimism about the Russian economy. Russia’s economic downturn is coming to an end, and markets have outperformed amidst global turbulence. But the coming recovery is likely to be tepid, constrained by deficits and poor structural policies, and sanctions will continue to bite. Brexit-related concerns are also likely to weigh on oil prices and demand. All this suggests that Russia’s economy will have a limited capacity to respond to future shocks.

January 11, 2016

Financial Markets
Global Economics Monthly: January 2016

Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn argues that 2016 looks set to be a volatile year in which geopolitics and hard-to-quantify policy dilemmas create significant uncertainty in markets. Policymakers will be asked to make tough decisions about where and when to intervene in markets at a time when their capacity to deal with crisis is increasing challenged, suggesting the road ahead could continue to be bumpy.

November 3, 2015

China
Global Economics Monthly: November 2015

Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn argues that the concerns driven by China's economic problems are modest compared to the 1997 Asian financial crisis or the Great Recession. However, there are reasons for concern: large financial imbalances, weak global growth, inadequate official resources, and political pressures. While a severe global financial crisis remains a tail risk, policymakers need to be prepared to respond.

October 9, 2015

China
Global Economics Monthly: October 2015

Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn argues that China's growth prospect lies somewhere between hard-landing and muddle-through scenarios. However, uncertainty remains and is already being felt strongly and likely to put increasing pressure on emerging markets through trade contraction and financial contagion. For the United States, fragility in emerging markets is the critical risk and will dominate economic decision-making for months if not years to come.