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September 20, 2006

Europe
Is it Europe’s turn to rise a housing bubble?

Both Morgan Stanley (at least Eric Chaney) and JP Morgan (in their latest global outlook) now recognize that Europe has emerged as an important engine of global demand growth.    Indeed, the 2005 sur…

eu_housingmarket_on_the_tak

November 14, 2006

China
Still not rebalancing …

The Economist cover jinx strikes.  After the Economist’s cover story extolling how Chinese growth no longer depends heavily on exports, the contribution of (net) exports to Chinese growth has done no…

September 11, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
Is John Snow going to be among Katrina’s (political) casualties?

Mike Allen of Time (formerly Mike Allen of the Washington Post) seems to think so.  Or at least he is starting hear whispers.It seems that the White House's post-Katrina political strategy consis…

January 16, 2007

Monetary Policy
I have a bit more competition, at least when it comes to reserve tracking

Morgan Stanley has launched a new global reserves monitor.    Their weekly has a bit more detail than in the online version.    I can hardly complain though.  I have a bit more detail hidden behind t…

asian_reserve_growth_ex_china

November 12, 2006

United States
“Convenient to the point of being self-serving … but it seems right”

Those are the words Charles Dumas and Diana Choyleva of Lombard Street Research use to describe Bernanke's savings glut hypothesis in their book "The Bill from the China Shop."  They write:In Mar…

December 8, 2004

Politics and Government
Damaged Snow

If you were John Snow, would you stay knowing that you were at best the President’s second choice?Do DC’s conservative activists really value tax cuts more than financial stability? And does their op…

June 20, 2007

United States
Does Bretton Woods 2 end with a bang or with a wimper — a dialogue

What follows is a bit of an experiment.   I am posting -- with permission -- a lightly edited version of an email exchange that I had with a global equity portfolio manager a few days ago.   Like all…

September 12, 2007

United States
A savings glut, not an investment drought -

So argues Ben Bernanke.   His basic argument is very simple.  The emerging world now has a large and growing current account surplus that finances a large and growing current account defic…

December 16, 2007

Economics
Weekend extra-credit -

Weekend reading for all those waiting for the US current account and TIC data on Monday. Time for a strong rupee policy?  This weeks’ Economics focus column intelligently discusses the policy d…

February 6, 2008

United States
Understanding the world through pictures: China, Japan, Europe and US current account adjustment

In December and January, the Financial Times (Messerlin/ Sally) and the Wall Street Journal (Charles Wolf’s December oped was reinforced in January by Bill Willby) and Foreign Affairs all published …

us_adjustment_2.jpg