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November 5, 2006

Monetary Policy
Stephen Jen - the anti-Roubini (and the anti-Setser)

The odds of a US recession: Nouriel Roubini: 90% Stephen Jen: 13%  I know my comparative advantage does not lie in gauging whether or not a sharp fall in residential investment will spill o…

November 21, 2006

Europe
The booms in Spanish and Irish real estate make the US real estate boom look timid

I have outsourced Thanksgiving blogging to Charles Gottlieb of the Center for European policy studies in Brussels.   (Charles.gottlieb at ceps.be)His topic: The Spanish and Irish housing booms (or bu…

spain_ireland_1

November 14, 2006

China
Still not rebalancing …

The Economist cover jinx strikes.  After the Economist’s cover story extolling how Chinese growth no longer depends heavily on exports, the contribution of (net) exports to Chinese growth has done no…

November 12, 2006

United States
“Convenient to the point of being self-serving … but it seems right”

Those are the words Charles Dumas and Diana Choyleva of Lombard Street Research use to describe Bernanke's savings glut hypothesis in their book "The Bill from the China Shop."  They write:In Mar…

January 16, 2007

Monetary Policy
I have a bit more competition, at least when it comes to reserve tracking

Morgan Stanley has launched a new global reserves monitor.    Their weekly has a bit more detail than in the online version.    I can hardly complain though.  I have a bit more detail hidden behind t…

asian_reserve_growth_ex_china

June 20, 2007

United States
Does Bretton Woods 2 end with a bang or with a wimper — a dialogue

What follows is a bit of an experiment.   I am posting -- with permission -- a lightly edited version of an email exchange that I had with a global equity portfolio manager a few days ago.   Like all…

September 12, 2007

United States
A savings glut, not an investment drought -

So argues Ben Bernanke.   His basic argument is very simple.  The emerging world now has a large and growing current account surplus that finances a large and growing current account defic…

December 16, 2007

Economics
Weekend extra-credit -

Weekend reading for all those waiting for the US current account and TIC data on Monday. Time for a strong rupee policy?  This weeks’ Economics focus column intelligently discusses the policy d…

February 6, 2008

United States
Understanding the world through pictures: China, Japan, Europe and US current account adjustment

In December and January, the Financial Times (Messerlin/ Sally) and the Wall Street Journal (Charles Wolf’s December oped was reinforced in January by Bill Willby) and Foreign Affairs all published …

us_adjustment_2.jpg

September 7, 2008

Monetary Policy
So true ...

Floyd Norris in the New York Times: Remarkably, the country that prides itself on being the beacon of free enterprise finds itself with a financial system that needs government money to finance the…