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June 7, 2019

China
Is OPEC China's Problem?

The decision by the United States to wind down waivers on U.S. sanctions against Iranian oil exports has laid bare some new realities about oil geopolitics that were previously not well understood. O…

A crude oil tanker is seen at Qingdao Port, Shandong province, China, April 21, 2019. Picture taken April 21, 2019.

July 1, 2019

China
China’s Bizarre May Intervention Numbers

With the Osaka Xi-Trump summit producing an indefinite "truce" that halts further escalation (at least for now), there is every reason to expect the yuan to remain stable. The intervention proxies (s…

China’s Bizarre May Intervention Numbers

June 26, 2019

Cybersecurity
Will the Future Bring Digital Trench Warfare Between the EU and China?

Four scenarios for the future of digital geopolitical conflicts

An attendant walks past EU and China flags ahead of the EU-China High-level Economic Dialogue at Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing, China June 25, 2018.

June 19, 2019

China
Trump’s Trade War Is Pushing China Even Deeper Into Debt

China state television has branded the U.S.-China trade war “no big deal” for the country. The IMF disagrees, opining that it may cost China 1.6 percentage points in GDP growth this year. Who is …

Trump’s Trade War Is Pushing China Even Deeper Into Debt

June 14, 2019

China
A Tale of Two Tariffs: China’s So Far Ineffective Tariffs on U.S. Manufacturing Exports

China's tariffs on U.S. commodities? A huge impact. Especially on bilateral trade. But also on global U.S. exports of soybeans. China's tariffs on U.S. manufactures? By comparison, a relative mode…

A Tale of Two Tariffs: China’s So Far Ineffective Tariffs on U.S. Manufacturing Exports

June 12, 2019

China
Did Huawei’s Chip Stockpiling Bring China’s 2018 Trade Surplus Down?

China's 2018 trade surplus fell by a bit more than I would have expected, and it wasn't all because of higher commodity imports. Imports of manufactures were strong relative to export growth. Could t…

Did Huawei’s Chip Stockpiling Bring China’s 2018 Trade Surplus Down?

May 2, 2019

China
China Never Stopped Managing its Trade

So long as the bulk of China's imports from the United States (and many others) are bought by state firms, China has the ability to manage its trade. The management isn't new. What's new is Trump's i…

Guests attend a ceremony marking the 1st delivery of a Boeing 737 Max 8 passenger airplane to Air China at the Boeing Zhoushan completion center in Zhoushan, Zhejiang province, China, December 15, 2018.

May 31, 2019

United States
130 Percent of Trump’s China-Tariff Revenue Is Now Going to Angry Farmers

“I am very happy with over $100 Billion a year in Tariffs filling U.S. coffers,” tweeted President Trump this month. This money is “great for U.S., not good for China!” The President’s account…

130 Percent of Trump’s China-Tariff Revenue Is Now Going to Angry Farmers

April 4, 2019

China
China's Coming Current Account Deficit?

Any economy that saves 45 percent of GDP will tend to run a current account surplus, China included. Keeping its current account surplus down takes extraordinary (though largely off-budget) fiscal ef…

China's Coming Current Account Deficit?

May 14, 2019

China
Smart Competition: Adapting U.S. Strategy Toward China at 40 Years

On virtually every front—from trade and investment to technology and innovation—it has become clear that the U.S.-China relationship has entered a new, increasingly contentious period marked more by …

Liu He Mnuchin