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March 29, 2006

Exit Schumer and Graham, Enter Grassley and Baucus

Schumer-Graham won't be brought to a vote until September.   China's central bank governor Zhou must  be persuasive.  Maybe he plotted out where the RMB will likely be if China continues with…

February 16, 2006

Monetary Policy
So where exactly are all the world’s reserves going?

We don't yet formally know the BEA's estimate for the end of the year current account deficit, but we have a pretty good idea.  We also now have a lot of data about how the US financed its cu…

June 21, 2006

United States
So, is Michael Mandel right? Did intangible income (dark matter) ride to the rescue in the first quarter, offsetting rising US debt?

As Michael Mandel has noted, the US income balance improved in the first quarter – contrary to the expectations of “pessimists” like me.  I would say “realists” – rising debt usually implies rising i…


July 26, 2006

Emerging Markets
Is Saudi Arabia the new IMF?

Last week I was beginning to think the IMF might be back in business.   A couple of press reports hinted that Lebanon’s central bank was facing real pressure.    Folks fleeing the country wanted doll…

December 8, 2006

Auto parts, China, protectionism

I have long thought that China's move into auto parts was a possible (political) trigger for a new set of stress on Bretton Woods 2 -- the point where the shift of manufacturing production out th…

August 23, 2007

Financial Markets
If the US Treasury doesn’t think the dollar is overvalued, can it also think that RMB is undervalued?

Christopher Swann of Bloomberg noticed the line in the IMF’s most recent Article IV report indicating that senior US officials objected the IMF’s conclusion – based on their model for equilibrium rea…

April 6, 2008

Financial Markets
Just how much money do sovereign wealth funds have?

A ton, according to Morgan Stanley’s Stephen Jen and a host of Wall Street investment banks Not all that much, according to Milken Institute’s Christopher Balding (as reported by Bob Davis in the Wa…


December 8, 2008

Financial Markets
Good bye, petrodollars ...

Estimates of the break-even oil price in Saudi Arabia’s budget vary, ranging from under $40 a barrel to around $50 a barrel. Sometimes that is because of different assumptions about Saudi Arabia’s a…

September 18, 2008

Morgan Stanley/ CIC

Reuters is reporting that Morgan Stanley has approached the China Investment Corporation (CIC) for additional capital; it isn’t just talking to Wachovia. It order to get the equity it needs, the …

March 22, 2009

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
Last week’s move in the Treasury market ...

When financial historians get around to writing the history of the great crisis of 2008 (or great crisis of 2007-09?), they will no doubt focus on the collapse of the market for securitized mortgages…

Last week’s move in the Treasury market ...