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September 4, 2005

China
If it is still a dollar peg, where is the monetary policy flexiblity?

I rarely agree with Steven "trade deficits do not matter" Jen.   His models for G3 exchange rate determination leave out a variable - the pace at which the US is adding to its external debt and its r…

October 14, 2005

Financial Markets
Are tax breaks for houses at risk?

Last weekend's Los Angeles Times (via the Economist's View) article on Bush's advisory commission made it pretty clear that at least one member of the commission, Charles Rossotti, had  t…

October 7, 2005

China
Speculation on the renminbi to heat up?

It is hardly a secret that the head of China's central bank, Zhou Xiaochuan, favors letting the renminbi appreciate further.  He proposed a bigger revaluation in the summer, but was overruled by …

April 3, 2006

China
Grassley-Baucus-Adams? And (another) long rant about the Economist …

The Treasury doesn't want to declare China to be guilty of manipulation.   Picking a fight with one of your biggest creditors isn't smart.  Right now, no one is buying more US debt (China buy…

Grassley-Baucus-Adams?  And (another) long rant about the Economist …

March 29, 2006

China
Exit Schumer and Graham, Enter Grassley and Baucus

Schumer-Graham won't be brought to a vote until September.   China's central bank governor Zhou must  be persuasive.  Maybe he plotted out where the RMB will likely be if China continues with…

February 16, 2006

Monetary Policy
So where exactly are all the world’s reserves going?

We don't yet formally know the BEA's estimate for the end of the year current account deficit, but we have a pretty good idea.  We also now have a lot of data about how the US financed its cu…

June 21, 2006

United States
So, is Michael Mandel right? Did intangible income (dark matter) ride to the rescue in the first quarter, offsetting rising US debt?

As Michael Mandel has noted, the US income balance improved in the first quarter – contrary to the expectations of “pessimists” like me.  I would say “realists” – rising debt usually implies rising i…

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July 26, 2006

Emerging Markets
Is Saudi Arabia the new IMF?

Last week I was beginning to think the IMF might be back in business.   A couple of press reports hinted that Lebanon’s central bank was facing real pressure.    Folks fleeing the country wanted doll…

December 8, 2006

China
Auto parts, China, protectionism

I have long thought that China's move into auto parts was a possible (political) trigger for a new set of stress on Bretton Woods 2 -- the point where the shift of manufacturing production out th…

June 28, 2007

China
The Economist still isn’t convinced the RMB is undervalued …

Half a trillion dollars apparently doesn't get the respect it used to. Neither the author of last week’s Economics Focus column nor Morgan Stanley’s Stephen Jen think that the Chinese yuan (or RM…

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