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November 8, 2006

Absence of global rebalancing watch - first q4 data point from China edition

I spent last night following the outcome of the US election.   It looks like a majority of US electorate tired of Bush Administrations policies (and Rummy) before the rest of the world tired of finan…


July 18, 2007

$136 billion here, $131b there and pretty soon you are talking about real money …

China announced that it added $130.6b to its reserves in the second quarter, only a bit smaller than the $135.7b it added in the first quarter.  Most of the increase was real: if China had 5% of its …


November 26, 2007

Financial Markets
Oil math

I loved the FT.com’s interactive oil map – particularly the graph showing the global flow of oil. I was also impressed by Qing Wang’s analysis of the impact of rising oil prices on China.   China …

October 19, 2006

Monetary Policy
Richard McGregor helps to solve the mystery of China’s slow q3 reserve growth.

The increase in China’s q3 reserves was about $30b below my expectations.  China’s current account surplus is usually about $15b per quarter larger than its trade surplus, and net FDI inflows have be…

July 21, 2008

Monetary Policy
Just how much money does China have? How fast are China’s foreign assets growing? And how much is hot money?

Answering these questions has been a long-term obsession of mine. I am not sure I have the answers, even now. China’s government doesn’t make tracking the growth of its foreign assets easy. …


January 13, 2009

Monetary Policy
Secrets of SAFE: A sharp slowdown in reserve growth and large “hot” outflows in q4….

China’s formal foreign exchange reserves rose by about $40 billion in the fourth quarter, rising from $1906 billion to $1946 billion. Adjusted for valuation changes, that works to a $55 billion or …

Secrets of SAFE: A sharp slowdown in reserve growth and large “hot” outflows in q4….

August 1, 2009

China linkfest

Qing Wang of Morgan Stanley: "Given China’s high national savings rate, from the perspective of the economy as a whole, there are only three forms in which China can deploy its savings: 1) onshore p…

May 20, 2010

Thinking Through Beijing’s Billions

Photo courtesy of REUTERS/Katrina Manson I have a new piece over at Foreign Policy about China’s money—or, more precisely, about how China’s foreign policy ambitions could change the way it deploys …

Thinking Through Beijing’s Billions

April 27, 2010

India Is at the Top Table. Now What?

Photo courtesy of REUTERS/Jason Reed On Sunday, China and India enlarged their seats at the top table of international relations.  As part of a general increase in capital, rich countries agreed to …

India Is at the Top Table.  Now What?

September 9, 2010

The DPJ’s Leadership Contest

No two candidates could present such a different image for the identity of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ). The citizen activist-turned-bureaucratic reformer-turned-party president has been cha…

The DPJ’s Leadership Contest