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October 7, 2020

Emerging Economies
Reframing the Collective Action Problem in Sovereign Bond Restructuring

A recent white paper from Lazard points out that emerging market sovereign bond holdings are often fairly concentrated among a handful of big players.  The main impediment to collective action may be…

Reframing the Collective Action Problem in Sovereign Bond Restructuring

September 16, 2020

United States
Why the Fed Bond Binge Will Boost Inflation

After the 2008 financial crisis, it took five years of quantitative easing (QE) for the Fed’s balance sheet to grow $1.8 trillion. This year, once the pandemic began, it took less than five month…

Why the Fed Bond Binge Will Boost Inflation

October 23, 2020

Turkey
The Changing Nature of Turkey’s Balance Sheet Risks

Pay attention to banking system's foreign currency exposure to the government ...

The Changing Nature of Turkey’s Balance Sheet Risks

October 20, 2020

Trade
China’s Surplus is Rising Rapidly. So is the U.S. Deficit. The IMF Cannot Turn a Blind Eye.

Do not use the IMF’s current account forecast in the Fall 2020 World Economic Outlook (WEO). It is already out of date.     

China’s Surplus is Rising Rapidly. So is the U.S. Deficit. The IMF Cannot Turn a Blind Eye.

September 28, 2020

China
Chasing Shadows in China’s Balance of Payments Data

China’s second quarter balance of payments data points to a significant increase in the foreign asset accumulation of the state banking system. That at least raises the question of whether China’s au…

Chasing Shadows in China’s Balance of Payments Data

September 23, 2020

Space
The White House Adopts Cybersecurity Policy for Activities in Outer Space

The Trump administration's newly issued directive on cybersecurity policy for outer space is another small step towards taking cyber threats to U.S. space systems seriously.

Vice President Mike Pence in front of the Space Shuttle Discovery.

September 16, 2020

Currency Reserves
Asian Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market is Back. Bigly.

Joe Gagnon and Fred Bergsten have called the years from 2003 to 2013 the decade of manipulation, as a host of Asian countries protected their competitive position of their exporters by intervening ma…

Asian Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market is Back. Bigly.

August 21, 2020

Wars and Conflict
Five Movies About Foreign Intrigue Worth Watching

Each Friday this summer, we suggest foreign-policy-themed movies worth watching. This week: tales of espionage and conspiracy.

Movie posters clockwise from the top left: Bridge of Spies/Amazon; Notorious/ReelGood; The Third Man/FilmSite; Argo/Awards Circuit; The Spy Who Came in from the Cold/YouTube; Three Days of the Condor/FanArt.

August 20, 2020

Trade
Falling Trade, Rising Imbalances...

If nothing changes, China’s massive trade surplus will soon be an even bigger political and economic issue…as global trade imbalances are once again being made in China.

Falling Trade, Rising Imbalances...

August 13, 2020

Human Trafficking
The Evolution of Human Trafficking During the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has devastated human lives, the global economy, and educational systems. Given the enormous financial hardship on families, the mass movement of people, and the closing of schoo…

Human Trafficking Thrives During COVID-19