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January 12, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
So does the President think the US is bankrupt right now?

By the President’s definition, Social Security is bust because it can only pay about 80% of promised benefits with dedicated revenues in 2053, after the trust fund is exhausted in 2052, and only 75% …

October 8, 2004

Economics
No jobs, No WMD, No Osama

By the criteria the Bush Administration set for itself in 2002 (and perhaps early 2003), the past two years can hardly be judged a success. Osama is still wanted, dead or alive. It turns out that S…

December 26, 2004

Emerging Markets
Argentina in the boxing day New York Times

The IMF’s typical diagnosis of an emerging economies problem is "its mostly fiscal", or so the wonky saying goes. Larry Rohter of the New York Times makes the argument that Argentina’s post 2001 suc…

December 10, 2004

United States
Dow Jones: Central banks do not seem to be dumping dollars

That’s the tag on p. C4 of the Wall Street Journal.The smart money -- and regular readers of this blog -- know that this is real question is not whether central banks are, in aggregate, dumping dolla…

January 24, 2005

Monetary Policy
Tyrants beware (except those we need to keep on financing us)

Today’s FT highlights the risk that the US will not benefit from cheap financing from the world’s central banks growing dollar reserves forever. Apparently, a new survey of central bankers suggests …

February 17, 2005

The Achilles Heel of Cowboyeconomics

The Wall Street Journal says everyone in the world would benefit from a dose of Cowboyeconomics. You know, exporting tons of debt, to support consumption growth well in excess of income growth ... …

January 10, 2005

United States
Apparently, like budget deficits, trade deficits do not matter anymore

Kevin Drum brought the latest National Review "trade deficits do not matter" article to my attention today. I learned a few things, namely that Steven Roach is part of a media misinformation campaig…

December 9, 2004

Retired Wall Street Titans (and the renminbi-dollar)

Henry Kaufman’s name sits on the building where I work. If nothing else, that means you tend to take notice of his opinion.He nicely summarizes why many believe the dollar won’t fall much further, o…

January 18, 2005

Financial Markets
The November TIC data: Matching debtor and creditor side data

The November TIC data has been out since this morning. The TIC data provides information about the most important way the US is financing its ongoing current account deficit: selling long-term secu…

November 13, 2004

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
Will partial privatization of social security pass the global test?

This post is primarily about the implications of partial privatization of social security on the budget, not about its overall merits. For what it is worth, I personally think good old pay-as-you-go …