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October 4, 2007

Financial Markets
2007 has been a lot better than 2005 for the dollar bears …

Some no doubt will take a revival of interest in a set of 2004 and 2005 papers (Rogoff-Obstfeld,  Krugman, Roubini-Setser, no doubt others) arguing that a real depreciation in the dollar is needed to…

em_reserves__euro

April 24, 2006

RGE pays my salary, not the IIE — and I am not exactly a true believer in dark matter

Patrick Smith seems to be based in Hong Kong, so I guess I can forgive him for thinking I work for the IIE (the Institute for International Economics).  The IIE is a great place, but they , alas, don…

June 27, 2006

United States
A soft landing means sustained $1 trillion plus (7% of GDP) current account deficits …

Over the past few years, US imports have grown faster than US exports.  The result -- to no one surprise: an expanding trade deficit.    Because of the gap between imports and exports, US exports nee…

soft_landind_1

April 24, 2008

Capital Flows
Adapting to the state’s growing role in global equity markets

Central bank purchases of traditional reserve assets still dwarf sovereign wealth fund purchases of riskier assets -- as well as central bank purchases of equities. But over time, it is reasonable …

June 27, 2008

Monetary Policy
Does the Fed’s mandate now extend to Beijing, Moscow and Riyahd?

The Financial Times, in a leader, says yes. If there were a Central Bank of the World its monetary policy committee would glance at today’s inflation rates and expectations of future inflation and …