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September 20, 2005

Emerging Markets
Is the IMF heading toward irrelevance because of a revival in private capital flows?

My answer is no. If the IMF is irrelevant (I don't think it is), it is not because private capital inflows to emerging markets have rebounded to pre-crisis (i.e. 1996/97) levels.  It is because e…

January 24, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
Hubbard is in pole position: the Sunday New York Time buried the lede

Apparently the Federal Reserve is beginning to worry that the Administration is not all that serious about reducing the fiscal deficit ... Wonder why. It seems like Martin Feldstein’s concerns abou…

November 26, 2005

Economics
Kansas is flat, the world is not …

To paraphrase the New Economist, the Financial Times must think the world is flat.  They just gave Tom Friedman the inaugural Financial Times/ Goldman Sachs book prize last week - for a book based on…

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December 30, 2005

Economics
Things I got wrong in 2005

Alas, this list is rather long.   There is a reason why Mike Dooley ended the first segment of our Econoblog debate by noting that he had been right (and I and other worry warts had been wrong) for 2…

September 15, 2005

Europe
Why is consumer demand so weak in Germany?

David Wessel writes in today's Wall Street Journal: "Germany, alas, is showing few signs of a Japanese style rebound.  It is, essentially, relying on lower wages to make exports more competitive …

December 21, 2005

Monetary Policy
Just what are the world’s central banks doing with their (growing) reserves

The IMF just released new quarterly data on global reserve accumulation (Hat tip, Menzie Chinn).   Just don't look to it to find out if the world's central banks are adding to their dollar or…

January 19, 2006

Financial Markets
The global flow of oil

The health of the US economy - and for that matter the world economy - hinges on the sustained flow of capital from the world's emerging economies to the US.   The health of the US economy also d…

February 22, 2006

United States
Shrinking dark matter watch

Or maybe shifting dark matter watch. Via Barry Ritholtz comes news that increasing US investment (according to Mandel) in one key intangible asset - US brands - may be yielding diminishing returns.  …

January 3, 2006

United States
Tyler Cowen take note - dollar pessimism may no longer be fully “priced” in

Tyler Cowen has argued that big shocks come when markets are surprised, and, right now, no one would be surprised by a dollar decline.  People like me (and others with a wee bit higher profile) have …

March 18, 2006

United States
What Geithner said. And then some

Most of the blogosphere has already weighed in on Tim Geithner's most recent speech.   I am a bit late to the party.   And I may not have much to add. I deeply agree with Geithner's argument…