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December 29, 2004

If you cannot beat em, join em

Daniel Gross’s article on the currency preferences of the world’s underworld is too good not to link to. It seems like the world’s drug lords are less willing than the People’s Bank of China to fina…

June 19, 2005

China
Two articles on China. One good. One not so good.

Reuters has done a nice wrap up of what we know -- and more importantly what we don’t know -- about how China manages its reserves. They correctly note that the TIC data misses so much that it, alon…

January 19, 2006

Financial Markets
The global flow of oil

The health of the US economy - and for that matter the world economy - hinges on the sustained flow of capital from the world's emerging economies to the US.   The health of the US economy also d…

March 18, 2006

United States
What Geithner said. And then some

Most of the blogosphere has already weighed in on Tim Geithner's most recent speech.   I am a bit late to the party.   And I may not have much to add. I deeply agree with Geithner's argument…

March 31, 2006

Europe
France: The most “Anglo-Saxon” of the big 3 continental economies

That's a headline you won't see in the financial or popular press.  The basic narrative is already established:  France won't change, and as a result, will lag behind the more flexible "A…

April 24, 2006

RGE pays my salary, not the IIE — and I am not exactly a true believer in dark matter

Patrick Smith seems to be based in Hong Kong, so I guess I can forgive him for thinking I work for the IIE (the Institute for International Economics).  The IIE is a great place, but they , alas, don…

March 26, 2006

Monetary Policy
Summers on reserves, exchange rates, the international financial architecture and other big topics close to my heart

Larry Summers has always believed that capital should flow from the already rich and aging societies that constitute the current core of the world economy to the poor and young countries on the perip…

May 7, 2006

United States
Searching for the origins of dark matter

Hausmann and Sturzenegger, if nothing else, have spurred a lot of work with a catchy title and a bit of clever accounting. We now know that:Dark matter stems more from low (reported) returns on forei…

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June 27, 2006

United States
A soft landing means sustained $1 trillion plus (7% of GDP) current account deficits …

Over the past few years, US imports have grown faster than US exports.  The result -- to no one surprise: an expanding trade deficit.    Because of the gap between imports and exports, US exports nee…

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June 21, 2006

United States
So, is Michael Mandel right? Did intangible income (dark matter) ride to the rescue in the first quarter, offsetting rising US debt?

As Michael Mandel has noted, the US income balance improved in the first quarter – contrary to the expectations of “pessimists” like me.  I would say “realists” – rising debt usually implies rising i…

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