244 Results for:

April 24, 2006

RGE pays my salary, not the IIE — and I am not exactly a true believer in dark matter

Patrick Smith seems to be based in Hong Kong, so I guess I can forgive him for thinking I work for the IIE (the Institute for International Economics).  The IIE is a great place, but they , alas, don…

May 7, 2006

United States
Searching for the origins of dark matter

Hausmann and Sturzenegger, if nothing else, have spurred a lot of work with a catchy title and a bit of clever accounting. We now know that:Dark matter stems more from low (reported) returns on forei…

image002

May 18, 2006

United States
If Zambia can create assets that appeal to US investors …

It seems like some investors in the US are dabbling in Zambian t-bills.   Or at least were until a few days ago.  The flow of private money from the US to many emerging economies is one reason why I …

May 30, 2006

China
China probably holds over 70% of its reserves in dollars

Or, rather, it almost certainly held at least 70% of its reserves in in June 2005.   At the end of June 2005, China’s reserves – counting reserves transferred to the state banks – were around $770b. …

June 14, 2006

United States
Disappearing Debt

I have already commented extensively on Daniel Gros’ argument that the US balance of payments data seems to suggest that US firms reinvest a lot of their overseas earnings, while foreign firms reinve…

June 21, 2006

United States
So, is Michael Mandel right? Did intangible income (dark matter) ride to the rescue in the first quarter, offsetting rising US debt?

As Michael Mandel has noted, the US income balance improved in the first quarter – contrary to the expectations of “pessimists” like me.  I would say “realists” – rising debt usually implies rising i…

q1_dark_matter_img1

June 27, 2006

United States
A soft landing means sustained $1 trillion plus (7% of GDP) current account deficits …

Over the past few years, US imports have grown faster than US exports.  The result -- to no one surprise: an expanding trade deficit.    Because of the gap between imports and exports, US exports nee…

soft_landind_1

July 3, 2006

United States
Paging Michael Mandel. I give up … there isn’t that much to worry about. At least not judging from the 2005 NIIP data.

OK, I am not really ready to give up.  But the 2005 net international investment position (NIIP) data sure didn't provide me much to work with.For a couple of years now I have been warning agains…

September 20, 2006

Europe
Is it Europe’s turn to rise a housing bubble?

Both Morgan Stanley (at least Eric Chaney) and JP Morgan (in their latest global outlook) now recognize that Europe has emerged as an important engine of global demand growth.    Indeed, the 2005 sur…

eu_housingmarket_on_the_tak

October 2, 2006

United States
Daniel Gross is right …

The increase in the interest bill of the US government is an underreported story.   The CBO reports that FY 2006 interest payments will be about $40b more than FY 2005 payments.  And that trend is se…