245 Results for:

December 5, 2006

Welcoming Latin America's New Left

Over the last eighteen months Presidential elections occurred in twelve Latin American countries. While Hugo Chavez and his anti-American tirades grab most of the headlines, these elections actually …

December 5, 2006

Working to privatize Social Security = working against free trade … and a bit more on the politics of agricultural trade

Privatizing (or eliminating) social security and eliminating the United States remaining barriers to trade fit together well in theory.   Both consistent with a philosophy of reducing the government&…

January 13, 2007

United States
The more the dollar falls, the more dollars you need to buy …

That, more or less, is the conclusion of “portfolio balance” models of global capital flows.    The dollar tanks.   Its share of your portfolio falls.   So sell euros (or RMB) and buy dollars to keep…

June 16, 2007

United States
Statistical manna from heaven

The BEA's current account data contained two surprises.  One that I expected.   Another that I did not.   The "expected" surprise was that the 2005 and 2006 data looks to have been revised to sho…

July 4, 2007

United States
Understanding the evolution of the US net international investment position

Predicting things can be difficult, especially if you are talking about the future. So the Yogi Bera cliché goes.   It rings true.   Back in 2004, I was fairly confident that the US net intern…


January 8, 2008

Monetary Policy
The end of the United States exorbitant privilege?

There is a lot of angst right now about the dollar, and specifically about the dollar’s ability to remain the leading global reserve currency. Look at the FT leader at the end of 2007, or Daniel…


January 23, 2008

The PBoC’s dilemmas

Whatever troubles the Fed faces, at least it is still profitable. The same cannot be said for China’s central bank. And while the Fed just has to worry about economic conditions in the US, the Pe…

January 24, 2008

Financial Markets
Property without power?

Diplomatic sovereign wealth funds argue, more or less, that they have no desire for power - so there should be no restrictions on their ability to accumulate property. Those hoping for a cut of the S…

July 28, 2008

Monetary Policy
Beware: Correlation doesn’t always mean causation ... London doesn’t just handle petrodollars

Capital flows through London are often taken as a proxy for petrodollars. Bloomberg’s Daniel Kruger, for example, argues that the buildup of Treasuries (and I would assume Agencies) in the UK ref…


June 16, 2009

Monetary Policy
Read Brender and Pisani’s “Globalised finance and its collapse”

I highly recommend Anton Brender and Florence Pisani’s recent monograph, "Globalized finance and its collapse." In a lot of ways, it is something that I wish I could have written. I don’t agree with …