232 Results for:

June 21, 2006

United States
So, is Michael Mandel right? Did intangible income (dark matter) ride to the rescue in the first quarter, offsetting rising US debt?

As Michael Mandel has noted, the US income balance improved in the first quarter – contrary to the expectations of “pessimists” like me.  I would say “realists” – rising debt usually implies rising i…


May 30, 2006

China probably holds over 70% of its reserves in dollars

Or, rather, it almost certainly held at least 70% of its reserves in in June 2005.   At the end of June 2005, China’s reserves – counting reserves transferred to the state banks – were around $770b. …

June 14, 2006

United States
Disappearing Debt

I have already commented extensively on Daniel Gros’ argument that the US balance of payments data seems to suggest that US firms reinvest a lot of their overseas earnings, while foreign firms reinve…

April 19, 2006

United States
You can not put dark matter in a container …

So says Michael Mandel.   Some of us might say you can't put dark matter in a container because it doesn't really exist.That is not Mandel's argument.  He believes in dark matter, though …

July 3, 2006

United States
Paging Michael Mandel. I give up … there isn’t that much to worry about. At least not judging from the 2005 NIIP data.

OK, I am not really ready to give up.  But the 2005 net international investment position (NIIP) data sure didn't provide me much to work with.For a couple of years now I have been warning agains…

December 4, 2005

What is the matter with Kansas?

After seeing this graph over at Calculated Risk, I could not resist.   It seems my home state has the least housing froth around ...Maybe it has something to do with the fact that a (very young) Univ…

September 20, 2006

Is it Europe’s turn to rise a housing bubble?

Both Morgan Stanley (at least Eric Chaney) and JP Morgan (in their latest global outlook) now recognize that Europe has emerged as an important engine of global demand growth.    Indeed, the 2005 sur…


December 5, 2006

Working to privatize Social Security = working against free trade … and a bit more on the politics of agricultural trade

Privatizing (or eliminating) social security and eliminating the United States remaining barriers to trade fit together well in theory.   Both consistent with a philosophy of reducing the government&…

January 13, 2007

United States
The more the dollar falls, the more dollars you need to buy …

That, more or less, is the conclusion of “portfolio balance” models of global capital flows.    The dollar tanks.   Its share of your portfolio falls.   So sell euros (or RMB) and buy dollars to keep…

July 4, 2007

United States
Understanding the evolution of the US net international investment position

Predicting things can be difficult, especially if you are talking about the future. So the Yogi Bera cliché goes.   It rings true.   Back in 2004, I was fairly confident that the US net intern…