255 Results for:

June 21, 2006

United States
So, is Michael Mandel right? Did intangible income (dark matter) ride to the rescue in the first quarter, offsetting rising US debt?

As Michael Mandel has noted, the US income balance improved in the first quarter – contrary to the expectations of “pessimists” like me.  I would say “realists” – rising debt usually implies rising i…

q1_dark_matter_img1

May 30, 2006

China
China probably holds over 70% of its reserves in dollars

Or, rather, it almost certainly held at least 70% of its reserves in in June 2005.   At the end of June 2005, China’s reserves – counting reserves transferred to the state banks – were around $770b. …

June 27, 2006

United States
A soft landing means sustained $1 trillion plus (7% of GDP) current account deficits …

Over the past few years, US imports have grown faster than US exports.  The result -- to no one surprise: an expanding trade deficit.    Because of the gap between imports and exports, US exports nee…

soft_landind_1

April 19, 2006

United States
You can not put dark matter in a container …

So says Michael Mandel.   Some of us might say you can't put dark matter in a container because it doesn't really exist.That is not Mandel's argument.  He believes in dark matter, though …

June 14, 2006

United States
Disappearing Debt

I have already commented extensively on Daniel Gros’ argument that the US balance of payments data seems to suggest that US firms reinvest a lot of their overseas earnings, while foreign firms reinve…

July 3, 2006

United States
Paging Michael Mandel. I give up … there isn’t that much to worry about. At least not judging from the 2005 NIIP data.

OK, I am not really ready to give up.  But the 2005 net international investment position (NIIP) data sure didn't provide me much to work with.For a couple of years now I have been warning agains…

September 20, 2006

Europe
Is it Europe’s turn to rise a housing bubble?

Both Morgan Stanley (at least Eric Chaney) and JP Morgan (in their latest global outlook) now recognize that Europe has emerged as an important engine of global demand growth.    Indeed, the 2005 sur…

eu_housingmarket_on_the_tak

December 5, 2006

Economics
Working to privatize Social Security = working against free trade … and a bit more on the politics of agricultural trade

Privatizing (or eliminating) social security and eliminating the United States remaining barriers to trade fit together well in theory.   Both consistent with a philosophy of reducing the government&…

October 24, 2005

Economics
Bernanke

The new Greenspan.   So says Reuters. Like Daniel Gross, I was betting on Hubbard.   And I certainly would not be surprised if he ends up as the next Treasury Secretary. Expect lots of talk abo…

January 13, 2007

United States
The more the dollar falls, the more dollars you need to buy …

That, more or less, is the conclusion of “portfolio balance” models of global capital flows.    The dollar tanks.   Its share of your portfolio falls.   So sell euros (or RMB) and buy dollars to keep…