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September 23, 2004

United States
The currency strategist at Morgan Stanley might want to talk to the chief economist at Morgan Stanley

Steve Johnson’s market insight column in Thursday’s Financial Times keys off Morgan Stanley’s currency strategist Stephen Jen’s argument that "As long as Asia insists on staying inside this dollar ar…

December 22, 2004

Politics and Government
A modest proposal of my own

My modest proposal: anyone writing about Social Security should have to pass a test demonstrating that they have read the Social Securities trustees report, and understand the basic dynamics of a sys…

November 30, 2004

United States
Their savings, our problem?

It seems like American households are now saving about a penny of every dollar they earn, and recently even less. Foreigners exporting to the US, in contrast, save roughly 35 cents of every dollar …

March 9, 2005

United States
Beware, should Norway ever diversify its petroleum fund: more than you want to know about the market for US debt

The fastest growing US export: Debt, without a doubt.Exports of long-term debt securities have grown from $404.5 billion in 2001 to $890 billion in 2004. That is an impressive 120% increase over fou…

August 5, 2005

Capital Flows
China, the US and the geopolitics of oil

The CNOOC Unocal saga is over. But CNOOC's ambitions remain: Energy market experts now expect Cnooc, which is controlled by the Beijing government, to explore opportunities throughout the Asia-Pa…

February 18, 2005

Monetary Policy
Will US (and Chinese) economic policy pass the Korean test?

Korea thinks China should get rid of its peg.And the governor of Korea’s central bank, Mr. Park, thinks the US should take steps to reign in domestic US demand and reduce its twin deficits.Park also …

July 13, 2005

Monetary Policy
The euro/dollar, valuation losses and central bank reserves

India, Thailand and Korea all have fewer reserves than they did at the end of March. At least in dollar terms. Their euros and euro-denominated bonds are not worth what they used to be.Malaysia - …

August 15, 2005

United States
The puzzling global flow of funds

I am less impressed by the June TIC data than the markets.   Yes, foreign purchases of US corporate debt skyrocketed, but foreign demand for Treasuries disappeared.  Total "private" purchases of US d…

August 8, 2005

United States
Once again, trade deficits do matter — and they really do have to be financed

Brad DeLong and the folks over at Angry Bear have already beat up on this rather ridiculous Donald Luskin argument that the US does not take on debt when it runs a trade deficit.   I hardly need to …

September 13, 2005

United States
The $58 billlion July trade deficit

Consider the increase in non-petroleum imports relatively to imports in the same month a year ago.January y/y increase: 16.3%February: 13.6%March: 7.7%April: 10.6%May: 9.1%June: 8.5%July: 6.3%All dat…