8 Results for:

February 15, 2018

Venezuela
A Venezuelan Refugee Crisis

In addition to a sharp economic downturn, Venezuela faces a humanitarian crisis. The United States can do little to prevent a downward spiral, but it should take measures to mitigate the political, economic, and humanitarian consequences of a potential mass emigration.

Colombian police officers stand in front of people lining up to try to cross into Colombia from Venezuela through   Simon Bolivar International Bridge in Cucuta, Colombia, on January 24, 2018.

November 8, 2017

Europe
The Unraveling of the Balkans Peace Agreements

Tensions are rising in the Balkans and the risk of renewed violence is growing, but the United States can help preserve peace and stability in the region.

Demonstrators storm into Macedonia's parliament in Skopje on April 27, 2017.

March 17, 2016

Georgia
Renewed Confrontation in Georgia

Introduction Although the likelihood of a full-blown war between Russia and Georgia is low, one cannot rule out renewed confrontation between the two countries in the next twelve to eighteen month…

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May 14, 2015

Cybersecurity
Strategic Risks of Ambiguity in Cyberspace

Introduction As major powers increasingly rely on digital networks for critical services, the number of plausible network attacks, accidents, or failures that could trigger or exacerbate an intern…

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June 11, 2014

Lebanon
Renewed Conflict in Lebanon

Introduction Lebanon is at risk of experiencing renewed civil strife in the coming months, primarily as a result of the spillover effects of the Syrian civil war, now in its fourth year. Although …

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April 16, 2014

Space
Dangerous Space Incidents

Introduction As space systems increasingly perform and support critical operations, a variety of plausible near-term incidents in outer space could precipitate or exacerbate an international crisi…

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April 22, 2013

Territorial Disputes
A Sino-Japanese Clash in the East China Sea

Introduction Tensions have risen to dangerous levels between Japan and China over a small group of uninhabited islands in the East China Sea, called the Senkaku by the Japanese and the Diaoyu by t…

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April 11, 2012

South China Sea
Armed Clash in the South China Sea

In April 2015, the author wrote an update to this memo to reflect recent developments in the South China Sea. Read the update. Introduction The risk of conflict in the South China Sea is signif…

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