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December 19, 2006

Emerging Markets
Andy Mukherjee should get an award for the most prescient financial column of the month of December -

The title of his December 15th column was “Asian central banks may spook investors in 2007.” He mentioned China, India and South Korea.    Thailand seems to have beat them all to the punch. Mukh…

November 14, 2006

Still not rebalancing …

The Economist cover jinx strikes.  After the Economist’s cover story extolling how Chinese growth no longer depends heavily on exports, the contribution of (net) exports to Chinese growth has done no…

January 8, 2007

Zhou v. Spence (and all the steps Zhou is taking to manage China’s surging surplus)

Spence:Casual conversation and commentary lead most Americans to think that this accumulation of reserves corresponds to a large trade surplus in China, achieved by holding the value of their currenc…

February 11, 2007

Emerging Markets
Highly recommended: Joanna Chung on disappearing developing country debt

I usually talk about the growth of the foreign exchange reserves of key emerging economies, but another feature of the past few years has been the fall in their external sovereign debt.   Joanna Chun…

March 23, 2007

Emerging Markets
Chindia (or maybe not)

The similarities between China and India have seized many (see Martin Wolf's column and the resulting discussion).   Both China and India have enormous populations -- and enormous scope to increa…

March 13, 2007

Forget multilateral coordination; let China do it

Fred Bergsten has long advocated in favor of a bit more exchange rate coordination – both to limit volatility and to try to avoid large misalignments among the major currencies.   Right now, the most…

May 20, 2007

What, if anything, has China decided to do differently?

China widened the band around the RMB and raised (slightly) interest rates, with the rate on deposits going up more than the rate on lending.     It hardly seemed like a major policy shift to me – bu…

July 18, 2007

$136 billion here, $131b there and pretty soon you are talking about real money …

China announced that it added $130.6b to its reserves in the second quarter, only a bit smaller than the $135.7b it added in the first quarter.  Most of the increase was real: if China had 5% of its …


August 28, 2007

Just how large is China’s subprime exposure?

Josef Joffe: [Can Moscow and Beijing] mend a global financial system battered by subprime crisis?   Where are the central banks of Russia and China?  Hmmm.    The fact that China and the oi…

August 3, 2007

What RMB appreciation?

There is a tendency to equate the RMB/ dollar with the RMB.   That most often shows up in tendency to equate an appreciation of the RMB against the dollar with an appreciation of the RMB.   That is a…