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June 28, 2005

United States
More wisdom from Martin Wolf

Having laid out the problem on Monday, Martin Wolf offers his solutions in tomorrow’s Financial Times. He presents three answers to the question "what is to be done"One answer is: nothing. Let each c…

August 30, 2005

Economics
Rubin doctrine of international finance v. Greenspan doctrine …

The Rubin doctrine of international finance (From In an Uncertain World):1. The only certainty in life is that nothing is ever certain.2. Markets are good, but they are not the solution to all proble…

September 4, 2005

China
If it is still a dollar peg, where is the monetary policy flexiblity?

I rarely agree with Steven "trade deficits do not matter" Jen.   His models for G3 exchange rate determination leave out a variable - the pace at which the US is adding to its external debt and its r…

August 8, 2005

United States
Once again, trade deficits do matter — and they really do have to be financed

Brad DeLong and the folks over at Angry Bear have already beat up on this rather ridiculous Donald Luskin argument that the US does not take on debt when it runs a trade deficit.   I hardly need to …

September 18, 2005

United States
Synthetic CDOs, China and Systemic Risk

I suspect the stock of outstanding synthetic credit derivatives -- $ 1500 b in synthetic CDOs in 2004 v. $300 b or so in 2001, according to Mark Whitehouse of the Wall Street Journal -- is the only t…

August 8, 2005

China
China was for buying Unocal before it was against it …

This Saturday FT story made little sense to me, apart from an ex post attempt to save face.   Better for the Chinese government to say the CNOOC's bid failed because it did not have a ton of gove…

October 2, 2005

Capital Flows
A consequence of saying no to China’s (oops, CNOOC’s) bid for Unocal?

Or just the natural result of expectations that China's demand for imported energy will soar in the future?  Probably a bit of both. China clearly has no particular desire to export democracy, o…

October 28, 2005

United States
Who would sit on today’s “committee to save the world”

That is one of many interesting issues raised by Times selectman Floyd Norris today. As Norris notes, Alan Greenspan never had half the power people thought he had.  All he does is set short-term (cr…

December 30, 2005

Economics
Things I got wrong in 2005

Alas, this list is rather long.   There is a reason why Mike Dooley ended the first segment of our Econoblog debate by noting that he had been right (and I and other worry warts had been wrong) for 2…

September 23, 2005

China
Did anything really change with the RMB today?

Widening the trading band around the dollar would be a big deal. Widening the trading bands around other currencies does not strike me as a big deal.  It - in a sense - just makes it easier to sti…