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April 17, 2017

Europe and Eurasia
Greece and Its Creditors Should Do a Guns-For-Pensions Deal

IMF Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard has said that Greece needs to slash pension spending by 1% of GDP in order to reach its new budget targets.  The Greek government continues to resist, arguing…

Greece and Its Creditors Should Do a Guns-For-Pensions Deal

April 17, 2017

China
Are China’s RMB Swap Lines an Empty Vessel?

As our recent CFR interactive shows, central bank currency swaps have spread like wildfire since the financial crisis.  In 2006, the Fed had only two open swap lines outstanding, with Canada and M…

Are China’s RMB Swap Lines an Empty Vessel?

April 17, 2017

Monetary Policy
Are Fed Watchers Watching the Wrong People?

One effect of the financial crisis was to change how the Fed conducts monetary policy.  This could be long-lasting and important.Prior to the crisis, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) set a…

Are Fed Watchers Watching the Wrong People?

April 17, 2017

Europe and Eurasia
Which Countries Stand to Lose Big from a Greek Default?

The IMF has turned up the heat on Greece’s Eurozone neighbors, calling on them to write off “significant amounts” of Greek sovereign debt.  Writing off debt, however, doesn’t make the pain disappe…

Which Countries Stand to Lose Big from a Greek Default?

April 17, 2017

China
Are China’s Foreign Exchange Reserves Really Falling?

Bloomberg and other media outlets have been highlighting the apparent significant recent fall in China’s foreign exchange reserves, suggesting that the development had important implications. In …

Are China’s Foreign Exchange Reserves Really Falling?

April 17, 2017

Brazil
Why Is Walmart Raising Wages?

On February 19, Walmart announced that it was raising its minimum starting wage to $9 an hour.  Since Walmart is famous for its ruthless cost management, this appeared to be a significant sign of …

Why Is Walmart Raising Wages?

April 17, 2017

United States
Psychology and the Oil Market

In his recent book, Market Madness: A Century of Oil Panics, Crises, and Crashes, our colleague Blake Clayton explains the role of market psychology in contributing to the wild price swings that h…

Psychology and the Oil Market

April 17, 2017

China
Should the United States Encourage Japan to Join the AIIB?

On April 15, China’s finance ministry revealed the 57 “prospective founding members” of the new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, of which China is the architect.   The likely founders include…

Should the United States Encourage Japan to Join the AIIB?

April 17, 2017

Monetary Policy
Is the Fed Gonna Tighten Like It’s 1994? Or 2004?

How will the Fed raise rates once it starts?  Gradually, in small steps?  Faster, with larger steps? In 2012, before becoming Fed chair, Janet Yellen argued for a later first rate-hike than would…

Is the Fed Gonna Tighten Like It’s 1994? Or 2004?

April 17, 2017

Monetary Policy
Employment Data Suggest Fed Could Be "Patient" Until 2016—or Later

In its last two statements, the FOMC has said that it “expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term”—2 percent being its target rate. What would it take to move it the…

Employment Data Suggest Fed Could Be "Patient" Until 2016—or Later