May 7, 2009
Iraq is currently in the early stages of a negotiated end to an intense ethnosectarian war. As such, there are several contingencies in which recent, mostly positive trends in Iraq could …
June 20, 2016
Since 2001, the United States and its international partners have expended substantial resources to secure, stabilize, and rebuild Afghanistan. Recent developments, however, indicate …
May 21, 2020
The trade war, fallout from COVID-19, and increased military activity raise the risk of conflict between the U.S. and China in the South China Sea. Here’s how the U.S. can prevent or mitigate a clash.
November 8, 2017
Tensions are rising in the Balkans and the risk of renewed violence is growing, but the United States can help preserve peace and stability in the region.
March 5, 2015
Political instability and potential violence could threaten Zimbabwe in the coming twelve to eighteen months. Zimbabwe's ninety-one-year-old president, Robert Mugabe, has no clear suc…
April 22, 2013
Tensions have risen to dangerous levels between Japan and China over a small group of uninhabited islands in the East China Sea, called the Senkaku by the Japanese and the Diaoyu by t…
September 6, 2012
In March 2015, the author wrote an update to this memo to reflect recent developments in Venezuela. Read the update.
In the coming months, Venezuela could experience significant po…
August 9, 2012
Iraq remains a fragile state deeply traumatized and riven by thirty years of war, sanctions, occupation, and civil strife. Although there are numerous positive signs of progress in Ir…