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January 21, 2020

Robots and Artificial Intelligence
We Need a Drastic Rethink on Export Controls for AI

Before export controls for AI are codified, the U.S. government needs to assess its past controls on technology and understand the challenges that AI poses to traditional export control practices. 

The hand of humanoid robot AILA (artificial intelligence lightweight android) operates a switchboard during a demonstration by the German research centre for artificial intelligence at the CeBit computer fair in Hanover

January 10, 2020

South China Sea
Top Conflicts to Watch in 2020: An Armed Confrontation in the South China Sea

This year, an armed confrontation over disputed maritime areas in the South China Sea was included as a top tier priority in the Center for Preventive Action’s annual Preventive Priorities Survey.

Aircraft fly from the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan in the Indo-Pacific

January 6, 2020

North Korea
Flexibility On Denuclearization Necessary for North Korea’s Economic Development

Although Kim Jong-un’s latest words on New Year’s Eve are a cause for concern, they seem to be aimed at gaining negotiating leverage rather than indicative of a real change in North Korea’s trajector…

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un speaks during the Third Enlarged Meeting of the Seventh Central Military Commission of the Workers' Party of Korea in this undated photo released on December 22, 2019 by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

January 6, 2020

China
More Trade Destruction than Trade Diversion Right Now

Earlier in the year, there was a plausible argument that Trump's tariffs were mostly just diverting U.S. demand to other markets. But in recent months imports from China and imports from the United S…

More Trade Destruction than Trade  Diversion Right Now

December 23, 2019

Global
Ten Most Significant World Events in 2019

If you are feeling a bit exhausted as 2019 comes to a close, you aren’t alone. It has been a busy year on the world scene. A seemingly unending parade of summits, crises, and protests have dominated …

Hong Kong Protests

December 17, 2019

United States
It is Time to Change How We View Foreign Direct Investment

FDI is increasingly driven by tax avoidance.

It is Time to Change How We View Foreign Direct Investment

December 11, 2019

China
Yes, Virginia, China Is Exporting Its Model

Last week I took part in a debate at CSIS on the topic of whether China seeks to export its development model.  For me, the answer to this question is self-evident: of course it does. Yet as I prepar…

Chinese President Xi Jinping raises his glass and proposes a toast at the end of his speech during the welcome banquet, after the welcome ceremony of leaders attending the Belt and Road Forum at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, April 26, 2019.

December 6, 2019

Nigeria
Nigeria’s Feud With INGOs Is a Gift to Boko Haram. It Must End.

On October 30, the Nigerian military temporarily lifted its suspensions of Action Against Hunger and Mercy Corps, two international non-government organizations (INGOs) working in northeast Nigeria, where Boko Haram is active. Both organizations were expelled from northeastern Nigeria last September following accusations of aiding and abetting Boko Haram.

A banner with the UNICEF logo is seen hanging on a makeshift school at an internally displaced persons camp on the outskirts of Maiduguri, northeast Nigeria, on June 6, 2017.

November 22, 2019

Election 2020
Campaign Foreign Policy Roundup: The Fifth Democratic Debate

Each Friday, I look at what the presidential challengers are saying about foreign policy. This week: the Democratic debate, Israeli settlements, China's human rights abuses, and Bolivia. 

Presidential candidates listen to Bernie Sanders speak.

October 29, 2019

Taiwan
Looking for the Mysterious Hedging Counterparty of Taiwan's Lifers

This gathers the six post series I did with Concentrated Ambiguity into a single easy accessible post.

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