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October 4, 2019

Taiwan
Shadow FX Intervention in Taiwan: Solving a 100+ billion dollar enigma (Part 3)

This is the third post in a series* on Taiwan's life insurers and their private & sovereign FX hedging counterparties. It’s the product of a collaboration with S.T.W**, a market participant and frien…

Shadow FX Intervention in Taiwan: Solving a 100+ billion dollar enigma (Part 3)

October 4, 2019

Taiwan
Shadow FX Intervention in Taiwan: Solving a 100+ billion dollar enigma (Part 2)

Large-scale purchases of foreign bonds have become the central flow sustaining Taiwan’s massive current account surplus and keeping the Taiwan dollar weak. The size of this flow raises the question o…

Shadow FX Intervention in Taiwan: Solving a 100+ billion dollar enigma (Part 2)

October 3, 2019

Taiwan
Shadow FX Intervention in Taiwan: Solving a 100+ Billion Dollar Enigma (Part 1)

Taiwan’s central bank, unlike most central banks, doesn’t disclose its position in FX derivatives. It really should. There is good reason to think its undisclosed exposure is quite substantial.   …

A Taiwan dollar note is seen in this illustration photo May 31, 2017.

August 21, 2017

China
Asia is Adding to its FX Reserves in 2017 (China Included?)

Perceptions often lag economic shifts. President Trump for example campaigned against China’s currency manipulation at a time when China was selling foreign exchange in the market, and thus didn’t…

China: Quarterly Outflow Measures

April 18, 2019

Indonesia
Indonesia’s Election: What to Expect From Jokowi’s Second Term

With another five-year term, President Joko Widodo will possibly revive economic reform efforts and could take a more skeptical view toward China.

President Joko Widodo and his vice presidential candidate Maruf Amin wave during a press conference after Indonesia's election.

August 29, 2016

Monetary Policy
Is The Dirty Little Secret of FX Intervention That It Works?

Foreign exchange intervention has long been one of those things that works better in practice than in theory.* Emerging markets worried about currency appreciation certainly seem to believe it wor…

USDKRW-last-60days

January 12, 2006

China
Asian central banks back in the fx market

Pretty much all of them.   It is 2004 all over again. From Dow Jones: Foreign-exchange traders said the central banks of South Korea, Malaysia, Taiwan and Singapore bought U.S. dollars Thursday, pu…

September 8, 2016

Emerging Markets
The Most Interesting FX Story in Asia is Now Korea, Not China

China released its end-August reserves, and there isn’t all that much to see. Valuation changes from currency moves do not seem to have been a big factor in August, the headline fall of around $15 bi…

KRW

February 27, 2018

Indonesia
The Rise of Islamist Groups in Malaysia and Indonesia

The rise of Islamism in Malaysia and Indonesia could have severe consequences for the two states’ societies, political systems, and overall stability.

Students pray at an Islamic boarding school in Indonesia.

February 20, 2018

Southeast Asia
Shifting U.S.-Indonesia Relations to a Transactional Approach

The U.S.-Indonesia relationship has often disappointed. It’s time to rethink U.S.-Indonesia ties and try to achieve real security goals, rather than make bold plans for cooperation that never come to…

Pence_Widodo_4.20.2017