30 Results for:

January 10, 2006

United States
Directing the perennial dollar horror story

(Dollar) gloom and doom sells.  Even if it isn't true.So says Bloggin' Wall Street Folks who worry about the trade deficit are in denial. They cannot accept that in the new (financial globali…

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February 15, 2006

Economics
Mandel v. Setser. Round two. More on intangible exports and dark matter

I was rather busy last week, so I was not able to respond immediately to Michael Mandel's response to my response to his Business Week cover story - and now Micheal Mandel is shooting for slightl…

April 17, 2006

Monetary Policy
Treading water (the February TIC data and ongoing central bank financing of the US)

The world bought $87b more of US long-term debt and equity than the US bought of foreign debt and equity.    The net inflow exceeded expectations - there were some concerns that TIC inflow wouldn&#39…

June 21, 2006

United States
So, is Michael Mandel right? Did intangible income (dark matter) ride to the rescue in the first quarter, offsetting rising US debt?

As Michael Mandel has noted, the US income balance improved in the first quarter – contrary to the expectations of “pessimists” like me.  I would say “realists” – rising debt usually implies rising i…

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June 14, 2006

United States
Disappearing Debt

I have already commented extensively on Daniel Gros’ argument that the US balance of payments data seems to suggest that US firms reinvest a lot of their overseas earnings, while foreign firms reinve…

February 1, 2006

United States
A debt-for-goods swap, not a debt-for-equity swap; and dark antimatter, not dark matter

Stephen Jen argues that the US-Asian relationship can be understood as a debt for equity swap.    Asian - led by China - buys US debt; the US buys Asian equities/ invests in Asian plant and equipment…

April 19, 2006

United States
You can not put dark matter in a container …

So says Michael Mandel.   Some of us might say you can't put dark matter in a container because it doesn't really exist.That is not Mandel's argument.  He believes in dark matter, though …

April 27, 2006

Unpleasant balance of payments math — why the interest rate matters for dark matter

Bill Cline of the IIE rightly took Nouriel and me to task (politely) for assuming that the average return on US FDI abroad would equal the average return on foreign FDI in the US in our 2004 paper on…

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January 13, 2006

United States
On the origins of dark matter

Stephen "Current accounts almost always don't matter" Jen is intrigued by Ricardo Hausmann and Fredrico Struzenegger's discovery of dark matter.   Lots of others are too.   Michael Mandel for…

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December 8, 2005

United States
Emerging market bubble watch - and a word or two on dark matter

Ecuador is the kind of country that can borrow only when times are really, really good for emerging economies.  It has been and - as far as I can tell - remains politically dysfunctional.   It tends …