January 8, 2009North Korea
In this brief analysis, I attempt to answer two questions: Can the United States cause the collapse of North Korea? Should we try? I have proceeded under the assumption that the answer t…
July 11, 2017Fossil Fuels
The best single measure of the resilience of an oil- or gas-exporting economy in the face of swings in the global oil price is its external breakeven price: the oil price that covers its import bill…
July 11, 2017Energy and Environment
The 2014 fall in global oil prices, from over $100 a barrel to around $50 a barrel, reduced the export proceeds of the world’s main oil- and gas-exporting economies by about $1 trillion. After a deca…
April 10, 2017Sub-Saharan Africa
A policy of combating kleptocracy across sub-Saharan Africa would strengthen the national security of the United States, and the Donald J. Trump administration should start with Nigeria and South Africa.
September 11, 2017Global Governance
Greater resilience to nationalist rollback is most likely in arenas of global governance where national governments are less dominant. Some of the disruptors to global governance that led to innovation also promise resilience to national policy change.
November 21, 2017Russia
Russia's information warfare operations, aimed to weaken adversaries' social cohesion and political systems, are complex and adaptive, but Western governments can take steps to guard against them.
January 1, 2003Iraq
Overview As we gain perspective on the initial postwar period in Iraq, a conventional wisdom has formed about key mistakes the U.S. government made in the early months of the occupation. This pres…