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July 12, 2005

United States
Don’t worry, be happy. Trade deficits do not matter so long as US household wealth is rising

Michael Mandel thinks I am making a big mistake, albeit a very, very common one - worrying about rising US external debt rather than celebrating rising US household wealth. Brad is making the very…

December 31, 2005

United States
Some things I got (more or less) right

Unfortunately, this list is a bit shorter than the list of things I got wrong.  Still, I think my crystal ball got a few things right.The rise in China's current account surplus.  I - influenced …

January 11, 2006

China
China’s December trade

The most impressive part of China's most recent trade data:  18% y/y growth in December exports.  That pushed China's monthly exports up to $75.4 billion, and laid the basis for a $11 billion…

April 3, 2006

China
Grassley-Baucus-Adams? And (another) long rant about the Economist …

The Treasury doesn't want to declare China to be guilty of manipulation.   Picking a fight with one of your biggest creditors isn't smart.  Right now, no one is buying more US debt (China buy…

Grassley-Baucus-Adams?  And (another) long rant about the Economist …

January 11, 2005

Financial Markets
Not where we should want to be

It is not a good sign when market strategists say any mention of "fundamentals" is dollar negative. From Wednesday’s FT:Mr Snow reaffirmed that his administration’s concept of a "strong dollar" was …

April 26, 2006

Did something change this weekend? Does the G-7 still matter?

I downplayed the most recent gathering of the great and good in Washington, arguing that those gathered in DC didn't really commit to the policy changes needed to avoid an another year of widenin…

July 17, 2006

Financial Markets
If the IMF wants to be relevant in the debate on global rebalancing ….

It needs to be willing to issue yellow—and even red – cards to countries running a balance of payments surplus, not just countries running a deficit. I applaud the IMF’s willingness to criticize …

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December 14, 2006

China
Paulson in Beijing: Can’t get no satisfaction

That is what William Hess argues in Newsweek International.  China cannot give Paulson what he wants without jeopardizing its domestic goals.  Hess writes:"Secretary Paulson will likely return home e…

September 11, 2006

China
The Wall Street Journal (finally) takes note: Europe, not the US, explains the recent surge in China’s exports

I was tempted to title this blog “$18.8 billion more reasons for Tyler Cowen, Dan Drezner, Greg Mankiw and a host of others to think the RMB isn’t really undervalued.”  But that would be a bit…

January 31, 2007

United States
Roach on globalization and China

Stephen Roach made three arguments last Friday. I disagree with two of them, but agree with the third.  And the third is by far the most important.   But before getting to the point of agreement, the…