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November 12, 2004

Capital Flows
Geopolitics of a new G-7

There is a growing sense that the G-7 no longer is the right grouping for discussing today’s major international macroeconomic issues. It is hard to see, for example, how you can discuss "global reb…

November 6, 2004

Will Japan be able to stay on the sidelines for long?

Some facts: 1) In 2003, Japan increased its reserves by $200 billion, emerging Asia by $245 billion. The world as whole increased its reserves by $500 billion, so Asia accounted for most of the worl…

November 30, 2004

Emerging Markets
Just because one dollar currently buys something like a million and half Turkish lira …

That does not necessarily mean the Turkish lira is cheap. Right now, given Turkey’s almost US scale current account deficit (close to 5% of GDP), the lira probably is a bit overvalued. Turkey is go…

December 29, 2004

If you cannot beat em, join em

Daniel Gross’s article on the currency preferences of the world’s underworld is too good not to link to. It seems like the world’s drug lords are less willing than the People’s Bank of China to fina…

May 12, 2005

United States
The sustainability of the current account deficit, once again

The market seems to have concluded that there is no need to put any pressure on the US to reduce its large external deficits. The dollar is up, at least against the euro. So is the renminbi for th…

February 1, 2005

Economics
If a Kansan is going to run the World Bank

Please pick Kassebaum-Baker rather than Brownback. Kassebaum is sort of like the Christine Todd Whitman of Kansas politics; Brownback is more the Rick Santorum. I suspect that Brownback won’t get t…

September 5, 2005

Economics
Those Louisiana ports, once again

They truly are of fundamental importance to the US economy - particularly the agricultural economy of the Midwest.  George Friedman of Statfor asks a good question?  How effectively can a port functi…

October 6, 2005

Economics
The Port of New Orleans, once again

It seems that George Friedman of Stratfor is right: it is hard to operate a port without a city.  The Port of New Orleans is open, but hardly operating at full capacity.   From the New York Times: Mo…

July 19, 2006

China
Chinese growth accelerates, RMB depreciates

That was yesterday’s headline.   Or, given the time differences, perhaps the headline from two days ago. Chinese second quarter growth picked up to 11% plus.  The only real surprise here was that the…

May 6, 2006

United States
Muddle through until the end of 2008, and then it is someone else’s problem

That, according to George Packer, is the Bush Administration’s current strategy for Iraq:“As a strategy, this amounts to muddling through the rest of the Bush Presidency, without being forced to admi…