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October 18, 2004

Financial Markets
Guess why Treasury did not issue the foreign exchange report?

The Treasury did not issue the foreign exchange report on Friday. Presumably, this is because it would have made the same set of arguments that last year’s report made, namely that China is not mani…

March 23, 2005

Capital Flows
Wolfowitz and the World Bank

Paul Wolfowitz looks to be heading toward the Presidency of the World Bank. He probably was not the first choice of anyone outside the US, not even the UK. But no one seems to see much of an upside…

May 27, 2005

United States
Bretton Woods Two and Trade Politics

The interest rate on the 10 year Treasury note is somewhere between 4.0-4.1% -- and the US seems to be having no trouble financing its current account (or its budget) deficit right now. The risk of…

August 11, 2005

China
China’s economy in 2005 is not what it was in 2000

China always has depended on export-led growth.   It is a core reason why China has been so successful.  China is just trying to hold on to the core of its success in the face of political pressure f…

Exports to GDP

October 12, 2005

China
China’s trade surplus dipped in September

China's monthly surplus was over $10 billion in August, and "only" $7.5 billion or so in September. The pace of export growth dipped a bit in September (v. August), while import growth stayed at …

March 22, 2006

China
Stephen Roach is well worth reading today

Roach has access to a slightly higher level of policy makers than either the author - or I suspect most of the readers - of this blog.   Particularly in China.   He didn't learn of Wen's crit…

June 12, 2006

United States
Calculation envy - the last US owned Treasury bill will be bought by the People’s Bank in 2012 …

Niall Ferguson had a big weekend.   His article on the United States’ propensity to go into debt gets published in the New York Times Magazine.  He compares the US economy to a dinosaur named debtlod…

September 5, 2006

Europe
Can the G-7 (and the IMF) match Ken Rogoff?

I quite liked Ken Rogoff’s policy prescriptions for global rebalancing.  Specifically, I thought Rogoff got two key things right. First, He recognizes that Europe already is contributing …

August 9, 2007

China
The balance of financial terror, circa August 9, 2007

Back in early 2004, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers highlighted the emergence of what he termed the "balance of financial terror."   China – and others – relied on the US for demand that t…

August 23, 2007

Financial Markets
If the US Treasury doesn’t think the dollar is overvalued, can it also think that RMB is undervalued?

Christopher Swann of Bloomberg noticed the line in the IMF’s most recent Article IV report indicating that senior US officials objected the IMF’s conclusion – based on their model for equilibrium rea…