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November 18, 2004

Is it the currency of John Snow and the problem of everyone else?

That headline draws on a nice quote from Steve Barrow of Bear Stearns. It paraphrases the famous saying about the dollar -- I think from Nixon’s Treasury Secretary John Connally -- "it is our curren…

May 1, 2005

China
Will China get hit by the cover jinx?

It is a bit hard to start shorting the renminbi (RMB/ the Chinese currency) just because China has now made its appearance on the cover of Newsweek. It is hard to short something that has yet to be …

February 17, 2005

The Achilles Heel of Cowboyeconomics

The Wall Street Journal says everyone in the world would benefit from a dose of Cowboyeconomics. You know, exporting tons of debt, to support consumption growth well in excess of income growth ... …

July 22, 2005

China
Fluctuating between 8.1101 and 8.1102

So far, the PBoC has allowed to RMB to move within a new trading band of 8.1101 to 8.1102: Dealers said they expected the central bank to keep the currency around 8.1100 for weeks, or even month…

September 13, 2005

China
Time to change the way we think about the world

China's  August goods exports: $68 billion US July goods exports: $75 billion China should start exporting more goods than the USA in late 2005/ early 2006.  That is rather impressive.  It means…

September 16, 2005

United States
Has the US outsourced creative thinking about external adjustment to … France?

Many have noted that President Bush likes French-style vacations.  Not so many have noticed that French economists have been at the forefront of thinking about the US current account deficit, and the…

Has the US outsourced creative thinking about external adjustment to … France?

October 4, 2005

Financial Markets
Forget China, let’s talk about oil

Not the oil price per se, but what oil producers are doing with all the coin that comes with high oil prices.  I have rattled on and on about how China's current account surplus is on track to …

October 2, 2005

Europe
Germany 1, France 0? Plus some musings about the politics of globalization

I agreed with a lot of what Fareed Zakaria wrote about Germany - certainly I would agree that Germany has done a lot more reform than France over the past few years.Compare Germany with France. In Ge…

September 20, 2005

Emerging Markets
Is the IMF heading toward irrelevance because of a revival in private capital flows?

My answer is no. If the IMF is irrelevant (I don't think it is), it is not because private capital inflows to emerging markets have rebounded to pre-crisis (i.e. 1996/97) levels.  It is because e…

August 22, 2005

Capital Flows
The Wall Street Journal oped’s page idea of a “serious” policy on Iran …

Is to keep Iran out of the World Cup (see Monday's Wall Street Journal).    That is serious?Moscow's boycott of the Los Angeles Olympics had such a profound impact on US policy ... How about …