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February 1, 2005

United States
One number to watch

My nomination for the single number that best captures the state of total’s world economy -- and a key risk going forward: The annual increase in central banks dollar reserves.It is not exactly a num…

July 26, 2005

Europe
Mining European data

I spent some time over the weekend delving into the Eurozone balance of payments data published by the ECB in its monthly bulletin, looking for insights into the global flow of funds. But to jazz thi…

June 9, 2005

Economics
Is the Fed getting worried about a housing centric economy?

Greg Ip has a lengthy article in the Wall Street Journal that, on one hand, offers the Federal Reserve’s defense of its post-stock market bubble economic management and, on the other hand, seems to s…

October 24, 2005

United States
Bernanke and the global savings glut

If you want a quip --A John Roberts, not a Harriet Miers.  Actually, more of a moderate John Roberts than a John Roberts. Bernanke will have no trouble getting confirmed.  Bernanke's academic cre…

November 3, 2005

Financial Markets
Gerd Hausler is a brave man.

Hausler heads the IMF's capital market division - so he is paid to worry.  And he is not all that worried: "I don't see a systemic crisis" That is a bold thing to say - even if he is right t…

August 29, 2006

Economics
Wages, Walmart and the debate about the Global Economy -

Both the Financial Times (Krishna Guha) and the Wall Street Journal (Greg Ip) ran articles summarizing the papers presented at Jackson Hole.   I liked Guha’s summary more than Ip’s summary, largely b…

September 7, 2006

China
Tyler Cowen apparently did not read my China testimony! The RMB’s value does influence trade flows

The New York Times’ conservative columnists certainly know how to get my blood boiling.  David Brooks, among other things, apparently thinks the key to a hedge fund salary is good people skills – not…

September 11, 2006

China
The Wall Street Journal (finally) takes note: Europe, not the US, explains the recent surge in China’s exports

I was tempted to title this blog “$18.8 billion more reasons for Tyler Cowen, Dan Drezner, Greg Mankiw and a host of others to think the RMB isn’t really undervalued.”  But that would be a bit…

January 30, 2007

Financial Markets
Hey big spender (or why conservation is perhaps a bit more than just a personal virtue) ….

In the past, I have noted that oil exporters saved rather than spent the windfall from the surge in oil prices.    The IMF calculated that the average oil producer in the Middle East “spent” 30% and …

oil_price_1302007

January 9, 2006

United States
Martin Feldstein joins the dollar doomsday cult

Stephen Kirchner take note.  Alan Greenspan, too.  Dr. Feldstein thinks central banks -- and oil sheiks -- are behind a lot of private flows into the US.  And he doesn't seem convinced that this …