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October 27, 2005

United States
Some thoughts on the Bill Gross blog

Fitzgerald now has an office above the TREASURY Starbucks?!? UPDATE: Guess not.  Fitzgerald is still across the street from the Treasury Starbucks.And Bill Gross is hip.  He is a BLOGGER. He does not…

January 3, 2006

United States
Tyler Cowen take note - dollar pessimism may no longer be fully “priced” in

Tyler Cowen has argued that big shocks come when markets are surprised, and, right now, no one would be surprised by a dollar decline.  People like me (and others with a wee bit higher profile) have …

January 20, 2006

The New New China

I asked DOR -- an active participant in the comments section of this blog -- to do a guest post on the recent revisions to China's GDP numbers.   He has a real job, so his identity has to remain …

April 22, 2006

The BRICS lend, the US spends

How is that for brevity?  The world economy reduced to a single rhyme.   The BRICS are Brazil, Russia, India and China - Goldman's set of big emerging economies.     With oil at $75, they really …

April 26, 2006

Did something change this weekend? Does the G-7 still matter?

I downplayed the most recent gathering of the great and good in Washington, arguing that those gathered in DC didn't really commit to the policy changes needed to avoid an another year of widenin…

September 7, 2006

Tyler Cowen apparently did not read my China testimony! The RMB’s value does influence trade flows

The New York Times’ conservative columnists certainly know how to get my blood boiling.  David Brooks, among other things, apparently thinks the key to a hedge fund salary is good people skills – not…

October 10, 2006

Financial Markets
So, what would happen to the US if China let the RMB float …

I recently gave a guest lecture on the global balance of payments.  After the lecture, I was asked what would happen to the US economy if China let the RMB float.  I think I was right to say the R…

October 12, 2006

Is France the US of the Eurozone — at least when it comes to housing?

I have --on occasion -- pushed against the standard economic narrative on the US and Europe, one that contrasts the "flexible" US with "rigid" Europe.   It has a grain of truth, but only a grain.   T…


December 11, 2006

Financial Markets
The GCC’s dollar peg …

China will have a current account surplus of over $200b this year.  China has about 1.3 billion people.   The GCC countries (Saudi Arabia and the small states on the Gulf) will also have a current ac…

December 24, 2006

Manhattan, KS - not Manhattan, NY

This is the time of year when I stop being a New York-based international economist/ blogger and return, briefly, to being a full-time Kansan.    Concretely, that means I won’t be foraging for food…