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April 22, 2006

The BRICS lend, the US spends

How is that for brevity?  The world economy reduced to a single rhyme.   The BRICS are Brazil, Russia, India and China - Goldman's set of big emerging economies.     With oil at $75, they really …

May 25, 2006

United States
You know, there are safe havens that do not have a current account deficit of $1 trillion …

Incidentally, I am not the only one who thinks that the US current account deficit is heading toward a trillion.   The OECD now forecasts $965b current account deficit in 2006 (7.2% of GDP), and $107…

February 27, 2006

Financial Markets
A butterfly flapped its wings in Iceland …

If you read the financial press closely, it was hard not to learn a bit about the Icelandic krona over the past week.   The krona pays a high interest rate, you see - enabling Iceland to attract the …

April 15, 2006

China
Have China’s manufacturing powers been exaggerated?

In a word, no.Many in the economics blogosphere have mentioned Guy de Jonquieres recent FT column, Which argues that the US - not China - is the world's manufacturing powerhouse.  And usually in …

June 14, 2006

Financial Markets
The shifting balance of oil power

The Wall Street Journal has noticed that the state is no longer in retreat from the commanding heights of the global economy.  The basic pattern of capital flows is now set by central banks, not priv…

July 15, 2006

Capital Flows
A new club of creditors …

Andrew Rozanov – a senior manager in the official institutions group of State Street Global Advisors – thinks America’s creditors in Asia and the oil producing world should create a club (sort of lik…

September 8, 2006

China
A trillion dollars doesn’t get the respect it used to …

At least not from Dr. Cowen. China will have a trillion dollars in reserves by the end of the year. A bit sooner actually -- a SAFE official recently indicated that China's reserves will to…

September 14, 2006

Emerging Markets
Poor countries financing rich countries watch

Table 1.2 of Chapter 1 of the WEO makes one thing abundantly clear.  When the IMF talks about the need for investors to “increase the share of their portfolios in US assets for many years” (p.16) in …

December 8, 2006

Monetary Policy
Bretton Woods 2: On its last legs? Or still going strong at the end of 2006?

Or perhaps a complicated combination of both?   That is a question that has popped up over at Martin Wolf’s forum.   It is a keyquestion for the global economy, and for financial markets.Those bettin…

January 7, 2007

Monetary Policy
Dollar and euros — not dollars or euros. And more dollars than euros in 2006

I have every incentive in the world to find evidence that central banks have diversified away from the dollar.   I like being right as much as the next guy.   Back in early 2005, Nouriel and I -- bui…

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