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December 9, 2004

Retired Wall Street Titans (and the renminbi-dollar)

Henry Kaufman’s name sits on the building where I work. If nothing else, that means you tend to take notice of his opinion.He nicely summarizes why many believe the dollar won’t fall much further, o…

January 26, 2005

Monetary Policy
The US dollar fails the Chinese test

So China wants to adopt a basket peg because it no longer thinks the dollar is a stable store of value. To quote Mr. Fan, Director of China’s National Institute for Economic Research:The U.S. dollar …

May 29, 2005

Non, and loudly

France has spoken.I don’t have any creative or original thoughts on what the French vote means for Europe, though, like many others, I found Henry Farrell’s thoughts interesting. For those intereste…

April 19, 2007

United States
The IMF’s forecast for the global current account

The IMF – as the FT, Stephen Roach and William Pesek have all noted -- has decided to stop worrying about what might go wrong in the global economy and start celebrating all that is going right.   Sl…


May 1, 2007

United States
No need to worry — the US isn’t going to run out of assets to sell to foreign investors any time soon …

In a comment in the Financial Times about ten days ago, David Hale argues that there is little need to worry about either the dollar or the US current account deficit.   The US has no shortage of fin…

May 20, 2007

What, if anything, has China decided to do differently?

China widened the band around the RMB and raised (slightly) interest rates, with the rate on deposits going up more than the rate on lending.     It hardly seemed like a major policy shift to me – bu…

June 17, 2008

Why is the US taking the currency issue off the table in talks with China?

Treasury Secretary Paulson apparently plans to shift the focus of the Strategic Economic Dialogue away from the renminbi. John Brinsley and Li Yanping of Bloomberg report: "The currency issue …

September 11, 2008

Monetary Policy
FRBNY custodial holdings of Agencies still falling, but at a slower pace

The latest data from the Fed’s custodial accounts (money that the Fed holds for foreign central banks) is out. It indicates that the central banks reduced their holdings of Agencies from $958.6b las…

September 20, 2008

Financial Markets
Finance as foreign policy (Russia, 2008)

American commentators have argued that Russia’s current financial difficulties are evidence that Russia’s participation in the global financial system constrains Russian geopolitical adventurism. …

January 23, 2009

Monetary Policy
Is the US now more, or less, reliant on China’s government for financing?

Rarely do nominees -- or even Treasury Secretaries -- make news in their written response to questions posed by Senators. But Tim Geithner’s comments on China yesterday tcertainly made news. I m…