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November 9, 2018

China
Foreign Capital Has Been Propping Up China’s Currency. Here’s What Happens When It Leaves.

“I think China’s manipulating their currency, absolutely,” President Trump said back in August. Yet the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) was, and has been, intervening to keep the RMB up, and not to…

Foreign Capital Has Been Propping Up China’s Currency. Here’s What Happens When It Leaves.

October 30, 2018

Economics
The Fed Should End Forward Guidance

In the Wall Street Journal earlier this month, we examined the change over time in the market reaction to Fed “forward guidance” on future interest rates. During the crisis, with the Fed’s policy…

The Fed Should End Forward Guidance

September 25, 2018

United States
“Russia is the first instance of a socialist economy in action. And it works!” My transcription of an H.D. White essay.

“Political Economic Int. of Future,” by Harry Dexter White (c.1944) In 2013, I published an historical narrative entitled The Battle of Bretton Woods: John Maynard Keynes, Harry Dex…

Essay First Page

October 18, 2018

China
With Growth Sagging, China Shifts Back to Socialism

“Deleveraging at State-Owned Enterprises,” said Chinese president Xi Jinping back in July 2017, “is of the utmost importance.” Fast forward to today, and the sentiment rings hollow. With growt…

With Growth Sagging, China Shifts Back to Socialism

September 18, 2018

United States
U.S. Housing-Market Trends Suggest Recession Around Election Time, 2020

Ten years ago, in September 2008, plunging home prices pushed Lehman Brothers into bankruptcy, fueling a financial crisis that sent the United States, and much of the world, into a deep recession…

U.S. Housing-Market Trends Suggest Recession Around Election Time, 2020

November 1, 2018

International Organizations
The IMF: The World’s Controversial Financial Firefighter

The International Monetary Fund, both criticized and lauded for its efforts to promote financial stability, continues to find itself at the forefront of global economic crisis management.

IMF Director Christine Lagarde

September 6, 2018

Trade
Trump’s Trade War Is Hitting U.S. and China Stocks Equally

“Tariffs are working far better than anyone ever anticipated,” President Trump tweeted on August 4. “China market has dropped 27% in last 4 months.” The president’s numbers are off—China’s sto…

Trump’s Trade War Is Hitting U.S. and China Stocks Equally

August 13, 2018

Russia
Did Russia Really Dump Its U.S. Debt?

“Russia dumped 84% of its American debt,” blared a July CNN headline. Russian central-bank head Elvira Nabiullina said the sales were just part of “diversifying the entire structure of currencies…

Did Russia Really Dump Its U.S. Debt?

February 13, 2018

United States
The Marshall Plan Holds Lessons for Present Tensions With Russia, Benn Steil Writes in New Book

February 13, 2018—The Marshall Plan—the costly and ambitious initiative to revive western Europe after World War II—marked the true beginning of the Cold War, argues Benn Steil. Bringing to bear new …

The Marshall Plan by Benn Steil

July 23, 2018

International Economic Policy
Is Trump Right About the Strong Dollar? Not According to Our Mini Mac Index.

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