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November 13, 2004

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
Will partial privatization of social security pass the global test?

This post is primarily about the implications of partial privatization of social security on the budget, not about its overall merits. For what it is worth, I personally think good old pay-as-you-go …

January 2, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
Social Security Crisis in 2018? Ridiculous

Take a look at this Washington Post article by Jonathan Weisman, which the big blogs have justly pounced on. The initial framing of Weisman’s article is just way, way off. Social security in no way…

October 13, 2004

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
The next president can duck Social Security reform

Schlesinger and Murray have a pre-debate overview of economic issues in today’s Wall Street Journal. All in all, it is not bad.But I do object to their characterization of Social Security. They not…

March 8, 2005

United States
The sharecropper society

I suspect Warren Buffet would agree with Bill Gross.There is one easy way to make it easier for the US to deal with its own aging population: Stop promising so much of our future income to support th…

February 1, 2005

If a Kansan is going to run the World Bank

Please pick Kassebaum-Baker rather than Brownback. Kassebaum is sort of like the Christine Todd Whitman of Kansas politics; Brownback is more the Rick Santorum. I suspect that Brownback won’t get t…

December 14, 2006

Paulson in Beijing: Can’t get no satisfaction

That is what William Hess argues in Newsweek International.  China cannot give Paulson what he wants without jeopardizing its domestic goals.  Hess writes:"Secretary Paulson will likely return home e…

March 28, 2007

United States
Global adjustment — the US, Europe, Asia and last but not least the oil exporters

Folks have been worrying about the current account deficit for so long that “Wall Street is downright bored with it.”    Trust me, I know.  But just because the world’s central banks have financed an…

June 7, 2006

Emerging Markets
The IMF hasn’t lost clout because private capital flows have ballooned.

It has lost clout because emerging economies reserves have ballooned.  Plus, the countries that count that matter now – whether big deficit countries like the US or big surplus countries like Chin…

June 6, 2007

Monetary Policy
Emerging Asia: generally still intervening

Justin Lahart’s column today noted – quite correctly – that a slew of emerging Asian economies have allowed their exchange rates to appreciate against the dollar this year.   The verb “allow” is…


October 4, 2007

Financial Markets
2007 has been a lot better than 2005 for the dollar bears …

Some no doubt will take a revival of interest in a set of 2004 and 2005 papers (Rogoff-Obstfeld,  Krugman, Roubini-Setser, no doubt others) arguing that a real depreciation in the dollar is needed to…