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June 19, 2019

Iran
Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and Hard Power

I woke up this morning thinking I would write a blog explaining just how challenging it would be for Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz for a prolonged period of time. This is not to say that there c…

Explosions that damaged two tankers south of the Strait of Hormuz on June 13, 2019 come a month after four vessels were targeted in "sabotage attacks" off the coast of the United Arab Emirates.

July 3, 2019

Iran
Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Ever-Complex Geopolitics of Oil

In a sign that anxiety about oil security of supply isn’t what it used to be, the Group of Twenty (G20) meeting broke up this week with no big joint statements regarding how to protect the freedom of…

Iran's Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh reacts towards journalists as he arrives for an OPEC and NON-OPEC meeting in Vienna, Austria, July 2, 2019.

June 21, 2019

Iran
Iran and Beyond: Interstate Conflict Grows More Palpable

As tensions between the United States and Iran increase, questions of conflict prevention and response loom large. 

An undated U.S. Air Force handout photo shows a RQ-4 Global Hawk unmanned aircraft in mid-air.

May 2, 2019

Iran
What Effects Will Tighter U.S. Sanctions on Iran’s Oil Have?

With significant risks now looming over global energy markets, the United States should be careful in evaluating any future oil sanctions, Amy Myers Jaffe writes in the following Q & A which first ap…

A gas flare on an oil production platform in the Soroush oil fields is seen alongside an Iranian flag in the Persian Gulf, Iran, July 25, 2005.

August 24, 2009

Monetary Policy
Iran

This chart plots oil prices against Iran’s estimated import bill “break-even” oil price — the price below which Iran either had, or would have had, to find sources of hard currency other than oil e…

2009.8.10.OilImportBillBreakeven3.0

February 25, 2019

Iran
The U.S. Message on Iran is Reminiscent of 2002

The march to war against Iran is echoing the drumbeats of America's last major Middle Eastern invasion.

Chief of Staff of the U.S. Army Mark Milley, President Donald Trump, Sgt. Maj. of the Army Daniel Dailey and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo salute as a military honor guard carries the casket of Scott Wirtz, a civilian employee of the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency killed along with three members of the U.S. military during a recent attack in Syria, past them during a dignified transfer ceremony at Dover Air Force Base, in Dover, Delaware, U.S., January 19, 2019.

January 15, 2019

Iran
The Top Conflicts to Watch in 2019: Iran

This year, an armed confrontation between Iran and the United States or one of its allies was included as a top tier priority in the Center for Preventive Action’s annual Preventive Priorities Survey…

PMF fighters ride a tank in Iraq.

June 27, 2018

Iran
Oil Geopolitics and Iran’s Response

At first glance, last week’s Vienna Group meeting—that is the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) plus non-OPEC producers including Russia—seemed to have resolved some thorny issues…

Iran's Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh arrives for an OPEC meeting in Vienna, Austria, June 22, 2018.

March 6, 2014

Iran
Iran and "Karine B"

The capture of a ship on its way to Gaza and carrying rockets supplied by Iran has made the news. The cargo includes dozens of M302 rockets with ranges of over 100 miles, which would bring most of Is…

January 23, 2014

Iran
Is There an Iran Deal?

Two remarkable statements must be juxtaposed to understand how much trouble lies ahead in trying to get a nuclear deal with Iran. Thus far, the trouble has been over the temporary arrangements, meant…