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September 26, 2004

Capital Flows
Confronting Iran would be a lot easier if the Saudis had more spare capacity

David Sanger looks at Iran and North Korea’s nuclear ambitions in today’s New York Times. Sanger suggests it will be hard to stop Iran’s quest for nukes, no matter what the nature of Iran’s regime -…

November 11, 2004

China

That alone ought to catch your attention. Whether talking about the US (needs Chinese financing), Latin America (needs Chinese demand for its commodities) or Europe (needs China to lets its exchange…

November 12, 2004

Capital Flows
Geopolitics of a new G-7

There is a growing sense that the G-7 no longer is the right grouping for discussing today’s major international macroeconomic issues. It is hard to see, for example, how you can discuss "global reb…

December 31, 2004

Capital Flows
Russia is to China as …

Canada is to the United States? Large in area, scarcely populated, cold and a major supplier of natural resources to its large southern neighbor ... Well, not yet. Russia, I think, generally exports…

February 20, 2005

Capital Flows
Banker? Strategic competitor? Both?

The US borrows about 1/5 of all the money the federal government spends, and most of the borrowed money comes from abroad: foreign purchases of Treasuries in 2004 exceeded the (net) issuance of Treas…

February 25, 2005

Capital Flows
Oil, and a bit of geopolitics

On Thursday, the Financial Times, the New York Times and Tom Friedman all weighed in on Asian reserve diversification. Paul Blustein of the Washington Post has an A1 story today on another of my comm…

June 22, 2005

Capital Flows
The joys of being a creditor nation

China is on track to add between $250 and $300 billion to its reserves this year. That is a lot of money. Enough to have an impact on global bond markets. Enough to buy several oil companies. As…

June 30, 2005

Capital Flows
CNOOC (once again)

The CNOOC bid presumably is motivated by two things. One, Beijing has plenty of cash, and already holds more Treasuries than it wants, so it wants to diversify its portfolio. As I argued earlier, C…

July 14, 2005

Capital Flows
Is oil always sold to the highest bidder?

I suspect that the US is not prepared for the implications of a world where China’s reserves are rising fast enough to allow China to finance the purchase of one Unocal every month. I also would bet…

August 3, 2005

Monetary Policy
Are US companies to Bretton Woods 2 …

What gold was to Bretton Woods 1?In the post war Bretton Woods system, the dollar was - at least in principle - fully convertible into gold at a fixed rate.   In practice, after a certain point in th…