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June 4, 2013

Turkey
Keep Calm, Erdogan

This article was originally published on ForeignAffairs.com on Monday, June 3, 2013.  When Recep Tayyip Erdogan was mayor of Istanbul in the mid-1990s, he did what successful big city mayors do -- h…

KeepCalmErdogan

December 29, 1999

Conflict Prevention
Calming the Ferghana Valley

Of all the regions of the former Soviet Union, Central Asia is potentially one of the most explosive and certainly one of the least understood. It is also growing rapidly in importance to U.S. nation…

August 24, 2017

Thailand
Thailand’s Enforced Calm Could Collapse After Yingluck Trial

On Friday, former Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra will hear the verdict in her trial over allegedly neglecting management of a massive rice subsidy plan. She oversaw the rice subsidy during h…

Yingluck_Thailand_8.1.2017

April 12, 2011

Israel
Tense Calm on Israeli-Palestinian Front

Israelis and Palestinians are watching nervously to see how the tumult in the region shakes out, but with both sides using more advanced weapons technology and the peace process in the doldrums, the …

October 9, 2019

Taiwan
$130+ Billion in Undisclosed Foreign Exchange Intervention by Taiwan's Central Bank

Based on the profits and losses disclosed by Taiwan’s central bank, it appears that its true FX exposures exceed its disclosed foreign exchange reserves by USD 130bn, and perhaps by as much as USD 20…

fig 19

October 8, 2019

Iran
1970s Oil Crisis Redux or Oil Price Rout?

It has been four weeks since a major military attack on critical oil facilities in Saudi Arabia shocked the world and very little has happened to suggest such an event couldn’t happen again. That beg…

Some Motorists Ran Out of Gas Such as This Man in Portland and Had to Stand in Line with a Gas Can During the Fuel Crisis in the Pacific Northwest.

October 3, 2019

Eurozone
The Role of the European Central Bank

As Europe has weathered a succession of economic crises, the European Central Bank has responded with an aggressive set of monetary policies that have redefined the bank’s original mandate.

Workers repair the euro sign in front of ECB headquarters

September 20, 2016

China
The August Calm (Updated Chinese Intervention Estimates)

The proxies that provide the best estimates of China’s actual intervention in the foreign currency market in August are out, and they in no way hint at the stress that emerged in Hong Kong’s interban…

cny-9-19-fx-settlement

June 27, 2013

China
The New Geo-Graphics iPad Mini Index Should Calm Talk of Currency Wars

The “law of one price” holds that identical goods should trade for the same price in an efficient market.  To what extent does it hold internationally? The Economist magazine’s famous Big Mac Ind…

The New Geo-Graphics iPad Mini Index Should Calm Talk of Currency Wars

July 2, 2019

Oil and Petroleum Products
OPEC in a Changing World

Western leaders have long criticized OPEC’s power to raise oil prices, but the bloc’s influence is on the wane as U.S. oil production has soared and alternative energies have come to the fore.

OPEC